Too close to call: Aaron Jones Sr. (9.1) and Rico Dowdle (9.0) project within 0.1 PPR points of each other in Week 8, and Aaron Jones Sr. faces the 10th-toughest defense against RBs.
Updated Oct 30, 7:29 AM ET
| Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN | Rico Dowdle RB · PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 8, avg of sources) | 9.1 | 9.0 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 6.5 | 8.5 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 10.5 | 9.5 |
| StatChasers projection | — | 8.8 (RB30) |
| Opponent | vs DET | vs CLE |
| Opponent vs. position | 10th-toughest (19.8 pts/g allowed) | 8th-toughest (19.4 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 55% carry share (last 3) | 31% carry share (last 3) |
| Position | RB | RB |
| Our call | FLEX · Flex | FLEX · Flex |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
It is a coin flip. Aaron Jones Sr. projects for 9.1 PPR points and Rico Dowdle for 9.0, within 0.1 of each other.
Break the tie with the floor if you are favored this week, and with the ceiling if you need a big game to win.
They are projected almost level: 9.1 PPR points for Aaron Jones Sr. and 9.0 for Rico Dowdle.
The sources range from 6.5 to 10.5 for Jones Sr. and from 8.5 to 9.5 for Dowdle. Either result is well inside both ranges.
Rico Dowdle is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Dowdle at 8.5 PPR points, against 6.5 for Aaron Jones Sr..
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Aaron Jones Sr. has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Jones Sr. at 10.5 PPR points, against 9.5 for Rico Dowdle.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Aaron Jones Sr. plays DET and Rico Dowdle plays CLE in Week 8.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Jones Sr. faces the 10th-toughest defense against RBs and Dowdle faces the 8th-toughest defense against RBs, so Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Aaron Jones Sr. has drawn 55% of his team's carries, and Rico Dowdle 31% of his team's carries.
Aaron Jones Sr. has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Aaron Jones Sr. nor Rico Dowdle has an injury designation for Week 8.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Aaron Jones Sr. is projected by 5 of them and Rico Dowdle by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.