Start Derrick Henry. Henry is projected for 14.2 PPR points vs 13.7 for Ollie Gordon II, and faces the 1st-toughest defense against RBs this week.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Derrick Henry RB · BAL | Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 14.2 | 13.7 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 11.9 | 11.1 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 16.9 | 16.4 |
| StatChasers projection | 13.9 (RB18) | 14.4 (RB17) |
| Opponent | vs JAX | vs DET |
| Opponent vs. position | 1st-toughest (16.8 pts/g allowed) | 4th-toughest (18.2 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 65% carry share (last 3) | 63% carry share (last 3) |
| Position | RB | RB |
| Our call | START · RB2 | START · RB2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Derrick Henry. Henry projects for 14.2 PPR points vs JAX, against 13.7 for Ollie Gordon II vs DET: a 0.5-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Derrick Henry is projected to score more: 14.2 PPR points to 13.7 for Ollie Gordon II.
The sources range from 11.9 to 16.9 for Henry and from 11.1 to 16.4 for Gordon II. The ranges overlap, so Gordon II outscoring Henry is a realistic result.
Derrick Henry is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Henry at 11.9 PPR points, against 11.1 for Ollie Gordon II.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Derrick Henry has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Henry at 16.9 PPR points, against 16.4 for Ollie Gordon II.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Derrick Henry plays JAX and Ollie Gordon II plays DET in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Henry faces the 1st-toughest defense against RBs and Gordon II faces the 4th-toughest defense against RBs, so Ollie Gordon II has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Derrick Henry has drawn 65% of his team's carries, and Ollie Gordon II 63% of his team's carries.
Derrick Henry has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Derrick Henry nor Ollie Gordon II has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Derrick Henry is projected by 6 of them and Ollie Gordon II by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.