Too close to call: Tetairoa McMillan (14.3) and Derrick Henry (14.2) project within 0.1 PPR points of each other in Week 9, and Tetairoa McMillan faces the 7th-toughest defense against WRs.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR | Derrick Henry RB · BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 14.3 | 14.2 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 13.5 | 11.9 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 16.0 | 16.9 |
| StatChasers projection | 14.4 (WR17) | 13.9 (RB18) |
| Opponent | vs DEN | vs JAX |
| Opponent vs. position | 7th-toughest (27.9 pts/g allowed) | 1st-toughest (16.8 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 26% target share (last 3) | 65% carry share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | RB |
| Our call | START · WR2 | START · RB2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
It is a coin flip. Tetairoa McMillan projects for 14.3 PPR points and Derrick Henry for 14.2, within 0.1 of each other.
Break the tie with the floor if you are favored this week, and with the ceiling if you need a big game to win.
They are projected almost level: 14.3 PPR points for Tetairoa McMillan and 14.2 for Derrick Henry.
The sources range from 13.5 to 16.0 for McMillan and from 11.9 to 16.9 for Henry. Either result is well inside both ranges.
Tetairoa McMillan is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has McMillan at 13.5 PPR points, against 11.9 for Derrick Henry.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Derrick Henry has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Henry at 16.9 PPR points, against 16.0 for Tetairoa McMillan.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Tetairoa McMillan plays DEN and Derrick Henry plays JAX in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, McMillan faces the 7th-toughest defense against WRs and Henry faces the 1st-toughest defense against RBs, so Tetairoa McMillan has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Tetairoa McMillan has drawn 26% of his team's targets, and Derrick Henry 65% of his team's carries.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Tetairoa McMillan.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Tetairoa McMillan nor Derrick Henry has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Tetairoa McMillan is projected by 6 of them and Derrick Henry by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.