Start Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is projected for 19.6 PPR points vs 16.2 for Geno Smith, and faces the 12th-softest defense against QBs this week.
Updated Oct 30, 7:29 AM ET
| Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX | Geno Smith QB · NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 8, avg of sources) | 19.6 | 16.2 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 17.0 | 13.5 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 21.4 | 18.5 |
| StatChasers projection | 20.2 (QB4) | 15.8 (QB19) |
| Opponent | vs IND | vs LV |
| Opponent vs. position | 12th-softest (18.1 pts/g allowed) | 5th-softest (20.8 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | — | — |
| Position | QB | QB |
| Our call | START · Strong QB1 | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence projects for 19.6 PPR points vs IND, against 16.2 for Geno Smith vs LV: a 3.4-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Trevor Lawrence is projected to score more: 19.6 PPR points to 16.2 for Geno Smith.
The sources range from 17.0 to 21.4 for Lawrence and from 13.5 to 18.5 for Smith. The ranges overlap, so Smith outscoring Lawrence is a realistic result.
Trevor Lawrence is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Lawrence at 17.0 PPR points, against 13.5 for Geno Smith.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Trevor Lawrence has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Lawrence at 21.4 PPR points, against 18.5 for Geno Smith.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Trevor Lawrence plays IND and Geno Smith plays LV in Week 8.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Lawrence faces the 12th-softest defense against QBs and Smith faces the 5th-softest defense against QBs, so Geno Smith has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Trevor Lawrence nor Geno Smith has an injury designation for Week 8.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Trevor Lawrence is projected by 6 of them and Geno Smith by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.