Too close to call: J.K. Dobbins (7.4) and Kaelon Black (7.3) project within 0.1 PPR points of each other in Week 9, and J.K. Dobbins faces the 2nd-softest defense against RBs.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN | Kaelon Black RB · SF | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 10.0 | 10.7 |
| StatChasers projection | 5.9 (RB43) | 7.0 (RB38) |
| Opponent | vs CAR | vs LV |
| Opponent vs. position | 2nd-softest (28.3 pts/g allowed) | 6th-softest (25.3 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 39% carry share (last 3) | 34% carry share (last 3) |
| Position | RB | RB |
| Our call | SIT · Bench | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
It is a coin flip. J.K. Dobbins projects for 7.4 PPR points and Kaelon Black for 7.3, within 0.1 of each other.
Break the tie with the floor if you are favored this week, and with the ceiling if you need a big game to win.
They are projected almost level: 7.4 PPR points for J.K. Dobbins and 7.3 for Kaelon Black.
The sources range from 4.4 to 10.0 for Dobbins and from 5.0 to 10.7 for Black. Either result is well inside both ranges.
Kaelon Black is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Black at 5.0 PPR points, against 4.4 for J.K. Dobbins.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Kaelon Black has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Black at 10.7 PPR points, against 10.0 for J.K. Dobbins.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
J.K. Dobbins plays CAR and Kaelon Black plays LV in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Dobbins faces the 2nd-softest defense against RBs and Black faces the 6th-softest defense against RBs, so J.K. Dobbins has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games J.K. Dobbins has drawn 39% of his team's carries, and Kaelon Black 34% of his team's carries.
J.K. Dobbins has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither J.K. Dobbins nor Kaelon Black has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). J.K. Dobbins is projected by 6 of them and Kaelon Black by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.