Jake Ferguson 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 27
- Height / weight
- 6'5", 250 lb
- Experience
- 5th season
- Drafted
- 2022 R4, #129
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 10.7
- Pos rank
- TE15
- Rostered
- 82%
Week 4 at Texans, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 16th vs. TEs, neutral
Jake Ferguson Rest-of-Season Outlook
Target-heavy TE2 with matchup weeks
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished TE5 last season at 11.1 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's TE15 at 10.7 PPR points per game, against 11.1 over 17 games last season (TE5). The role is producing the same fantasy output two years running.
Last season he ranked 12th of 81 in route participation (77.5%), 12th of 82 in target share (16.8%) and 43rd of 82 in efficiency (1.19 yards per route run). His points come from his target share. Efficiency is the soft spot. Dak Prescott is his quarterback.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with Brevyn Spann-Ford next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Ferguson turned a healthy 17 games and a 77.5% route rate into 102 targets, 82 catches, and 8 scores in 2025, his TD output rebounding from a goose egg the year prior. The efficiency, though, tells the cap story: 7.32 yards per reception, just 1.19 yards per route run, and an EPA per play of 0.177 that trailed his 2023 peak of 0.321. A 16.8% target share and 24 red-zone looks anchor the floor, but a 47.1% success rate and microscopic 4.66 air yards per target frame him as a possession piece, not a field-stretcher.
Behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, he stays third in the pecking order, leaning on red-zone work and Dak Prescott's availability. His one collapse came when Prescott missed time. With elite hands (just two drops, 80.4% catch rate) and consistent six-target volume, treat him as a high-end TE2 worth a double-digit-round flier.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 81 tight ends who played at least six games. Each bar is one tight end, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Route participation
Target share
Efficiency
- Average depth of target
- 4.7
- Drop rate
- 2.0%
- Red-zone targets
- 24
- Route participation
- 77.5%
- YAC per reception
- 3.7
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- The scheduleNone of his next four opponents is a top-10 matchup for TEs.Wk 4 HOU, 16thWk 5 TB, 11thWk 6 GB, 22ndWk 7 PHI, 32nd
- Every-down route participation77.5% route participation, 12th of 81 TEs in 2025.
- Heavy target share16.8% target share, 12th of 82 TEs in 2025.
Risk
- Job securityBrevyn Spann-Ford is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- A tough matchupThe Eagles in Week 7 (32nd) is among the stingiest defenses against TEs.
- Ball security3 fumbles in 2025.
All Jake Ferguson stats & analysis
TEs like Jake Ferguson
Jake Ferguson Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Jake Ferguson's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Jake Ferguson projects as a target-heavy TE2 with matchup weeks for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in TE-premium leagues and a matchup play in 12-team and 10-team leagues. His target share (16.8% target share, 12th of 82 TEs in 2025) supports that. His efficiency (1.19 yards per route run, 43rd of 82 TEs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Jake Ferguson's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Jake Ferguson is the TE15 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in TE2 territory, a matchup play in 12-team leagues.
What is Jake Ferguson's projected role going forward?
Jake Ferguson is the listed starting TE, with Brevyn Spann-Ford next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Jake Ferguson get more targets?
Jake Ferguson's targets are holding steady: 4.5 a game over his last two games against 3.7 for the season. His share of the offense is what his fantasy value rides on.
What is Jake Ferguson's fantasy football upside?
Jake Ferguson's upside: his ceiling this season is 20.3 PPR points (Week 2, TE4) and his target share (16.8% target share, 12th of 82 TEs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on.
What could hurt Jake Ferguson's fantasy value?
Jake Ferguson's risks: Brevyn Spann-Ford is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt, his efficiency (1.19 yards per route run, 43rd of 82 TEs in 2025) limits his scoring and the Eagles in Week 7 is a tough matchup. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Jake Ferguson's remaining fantasy schedule?
Favorable: of his next seven games, 2 come against a top-10 matchup for TEs and 1 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.