Tetairoa McMillan 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 23
- Height / weight
- 6'4", 220 lb
- Experience
- 2nd season
- Drafted
- 2025 R1, #8
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 9.8
- Pos rank
- WR40
- Rostered
- 98%
Week 4 vs. Lions, Sun Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET 2nd vs. WRs, favorable
Tetairoa McMillan Rest-of-Season Outlook
Downfield WR4 for deep leagues only
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished WR16 last season at 12.4 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's WR40 at 9.8 PPR points per game, against 12.4 over 17 games last season (WR16). He's running behind last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 10th of 142 in target volume (25.4% target share), 2nd of 142 in downfield role (40.9% air-yards share) and 33rd of 142 in efficiency (1.96 yards per route run). His points come from his downfield role. Bryce Young is his quarterback.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with David Moore next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
The next favorable matchups are the Lions in Week 4 (2nd against WRs) and the Packers in Week 8 (10th against WRs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
McMillan's rookie résumé screams alpha. He commanded a 25.4% target share and a staggering 40.9% air-yards share on 122 looks, posting 70 grabs for 1,014 yards and seven scores across all 17 games. The underlying numbers back the workload: 0.236 targets per route, a 0.667 WOPR, 1.96 yards per route run, and a plus-0.207 EPA per play with a 50% success rate. That production landed him at WR14 despite an offense that gave him little margin.
The path to a true breakout is paved by sheer opportunity. Fifteen red-zone targets and an 11.6-yard average depth signal a complete, every-down role with year-two upside. The catch rate (57.4%) and eight drops leave obvious room to climb, and any quarterback stability lifts his ceiling further. An ankle issue bears monitoring, but a healthy camp keeps him squarely in the early-Round-3 conversation as a high-floor WR1 bet.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 142 receivers who played at least six games. Each bar is one receiver, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Target volume
Downfield role
Efficiency
- Average depth of target
- 11.6
- Drop rate
- 6.6%
- Red-zone targets
- 15
- Route participation
- 94.3%
- YAC per reception
- 3.8
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft stretchThe Lions in Week 4 and the Packers in Week 8 are top-10 matchups for WRs.Wk 4 DET, 2ndWk 6 PHI, 12thWk 7 TB, 26thWk 8 GB, 10th
- Heavy target volume25.4% target share, 10th of 142 WRs in 2025.
- Downfield role40.9% air-yards share, 2nd of 142 WRs in 2025.
Risk
- Job securityDavid Moore is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- A tough matchupThe Buccaneers in Week 7 (26th) is among the stingiest defenses against WRs.
- DropsA 6.6% drop rate in 2025.
All Tetairoa McMillan stats & analysis
WRs like Tetairoa McMillan
WR37Terry McLaurinCommanders30.1 PTS
WR38Jaylen WaddleBroncos29.4 PTS
WR39Wan'Dale RobinsonTitans29.4 PTS
WR40You are hereTetairoa McMillanPanthers29.3 PTS
WR41Keenan AllenColts29.0 PTS
WR42Mack HollinsPatriots27.6 PTS
WR43Rashod BatemanRavens27.5 PTS
Tetairoa McMillan Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Tetairoa McMillan's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Tetairoa McMillan projects as a downfield WR4 for deep leagues only for the rest of the 2026 season: a bench stash in 12-team PPR leagues, waiver-wire material in 10-team PPR leagues and a bench stash in half-PPR leagues. His downfield role (40.9% air-yards share, 2nd of 142 WRs in 2025) supports that. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Tetairoa McMillan's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Tetairoa McMillan is the WR40 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in WR4 territory, waiver-wire material in 10-team PPR leagues.
What is Tetairoa McMillan's projected role going forward?
Tetairoa McMillan is the listed starting WR, with David Moore next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Tetairoa McMillan get more targets?
Tetairoa McMillan's targets are holding steady: 7.5 a game over his last two games against 7.7 for the season. His share of the offense is what his fantasy value rides on.
What is Tetairoa McMillan's fantasy football upside?
Tetairoa McMillan's upside: his ceiling this season is 15.1 PPR points (Week 2, WR16), his downfield role (40.9% air-yards share, 2nd of 142 WRs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Lions in Week 4 and the Packers in Week 8 are top-10 matchups for WRs.
What could hurt Tetairoa McMillan's fantasy value?
Tetairoa McMillan's risks: David Moore is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt and the Buccaneers in Week 7 is a tough matchup. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Tetairoa McMillan's remaining fantasy schedule?
About average: of his next seven games, 3 come against a top-10 matchup for WRs and 3 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.