Xavier Smith 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 29
- Height / weight
- 5'9", 180 lb
- Experience
- 4th season
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 0.0
- Pos rank
- WR168
- Rostered
- —
Week 4 at Eagles, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 12th vs. WRs, neutral
Xavier Smith Rest-of-Season Outlook
Efficient depth WR for deep leagues only
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished WR116 last season at 3.5 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's WR168 at 0.0 PPR points per game, against 3.5 over 14 games last season (WR116). He's running behind last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 112th of 142 in target volume (4.1% target share), 98th of 142 in downfield role (7.5% air-yards share) and 28th of 142 in efficiency (2.03 yards per route run). His points come from his efficiency. Target volume is the soft spot. Matthew Stafford is his quarterback.
The next favorable matchups are the Bills in Week 5 (7th against WRs) and the Cardinals in Week 6 (4th against WRs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Smith’s 2025 jump came on tiny volume but eye-popping efficiency: a 21.4 percent snap share and 149 routes yielded 24 targets, 18 catches and 303 yards at a sterling 16.83 yards per reception. The 2.03 yards per route run and a 0.914 EPA per play are elite per-route marks, fueled by a deep role—16.88 air yards per target, four catches of 30-plus and two of 40-plus—after just 6 yards in 2024. He still finished only WR92 with 30.3 fantasy points because the target tree is so thin.
That is the whole story: spectacular rates, negligible volume. With a 4.1 percent target share and zero touchdowns despite the big plays, Smith is entirely matchup- and variance-dependent in a crowded Los Angeles receiver room. The deep-ball role gives him real spike-week potential if a target ahead misses time, but the 27-year-old offers no reliable floor. He is a best-ball and deep-league dart only, not a standard redraft starter.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 142 receivers who played at least six games. Each bar is one receiver, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Target volume
Downfield role
Efficiency
- Average depth of target
- 16.9
- Drop rate
- 4.2%
- Red-zone targets
- 3
- Route participation
- 24.1%
- YAC per reception
- 5.9
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft stretchThe Bills in Week 5 and the Cardinals in Week 6 are top-10 matchups for WRs.Wk 4 PHI, 12thWk 5 BUF, 7thWk 6 ARI, 4thWk 7 LV, 29th
- Strong efficiency2.03 yards per route run, 28th of 142 WRs in 2025.
Risk
- Low target volume4.1% target share, 112th of 142 WRs in 2025.
- A tough matchupThe Raiders in Week 7 (29th) is among the stingiest defenses against WRs.
All Xavier Smith stats & analysis
WRs like Xavier Smith
Xavier Smith Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Xavier Smith's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Xavier Smith projects as an efficient depth WR for deep leagues only for the rest of the 2026 season: waiver-wire material in 12-team PPR, 10-team PPR and half-PPR leagues. His efficiency (2.03 yards per route run, 28th of 142 WRs in 2025) supports that. His target volume (4.1% target share, 112th of 142 WRs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Xavier Smith's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Xavier Smith is the WR168 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in depth WR territory, waiver-wire material in 10-team PPR leagues.
Will Xavier Smith get more targets?
Xavier Smith's targets are holding steady: 0.5 a game over his last two games against 0.3 for the season. His share of the offense is what his fantasy value rides on.
What is Xavier Smith's fantasy football upside?
Xavier Smith's upside: his ceiling this season is 0.0 PPR points (Week 1, WR132), his efficiency (2.03 yards per route run, 28th of 142 WRs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Bills in Week 5 and the Cardinals in Week 6 are top-10 matchups for WRs.
What could hurt Xavier Smith's fantasy value?
Xavier Smith's risks: his target volume (4.1% target share, 112th of 142 WRs in 2025) limits his scoring and the Raiders in Week 7 is a tough matchup. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Xavier Smith's remaining fantasy schedule?
Favorable: of his next seven games, 4 come against a top-10 matchup for WRs and 1 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.