Start Caleb Douglas. Douglas is projected for 9.5 PPR points vs 2.0 for A.J. Brown, and faces the 3rd-softest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Caleb Douglas WR · MIA | A.J. Brown WR · NE | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 9.5 | 2.0 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 8.5 | 2.0 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 10.0 | 2.0 |
| StatChasers projection | 9.6 (WR44) | — |
| Opponent | vs DET | Bye |
| Opponent vs. position | 3rd-softest (37.7 pts/g allowed) | — |
| Recent usage | 16% target share (last 3) | 22% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | WR |
| Our call | SIT · Bench | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Caleb Douglas. Douglas projects for 9.5 PPR points vs DET, against 2.0 for A.J. Brown on a bye: a 7.5-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Caleb Douglas is projected to score more: 9.5 PPR points to 2.0 for A.J. Brown.
The sources range from 8.5 to 10.0 for Douglas and from 2.0 to 2.0 for Brown. Even Brown's highest projection is below Douglas's lowest.
Caleb Douglas is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Douglas at 8.5 PPR points, against 2.0 for A.J. Brown.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Caleb Douglas has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Douglas at 10.0 PPR points, against 2.0 for A.J. Brown.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Caleb Douglas plays DET and A.J. Brown is on a bye in Week 9.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Caleb Douglas has drawn 16% of his team's targets, and A.J. Brown 22% of his team's targets.
A.J. Brown has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is A.J. Brown.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Caleb Douglas has no injury designation, and A.J. Brown is on a bye.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Caleb Douglas is projected by 6 of them and A.J. Brown by 1.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.