Too close to call: A.J. Brown (16.2) and Garrett Wilson (16.0) project within 0.2 PPR points of each other in Week 7, and A.J. Brown faces the 15th-toughest defense against WRs.
Updated Oct 24, 4:47 PM ET
| A.J. Brown WR · NE | Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 7, avg of sources) | 16.2 | 16.0 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 14.9 | 13.2 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 18.4 | 18.7 |
| StatChasers projection | — | — |
| Opponent | vs CHI | vs MIA |
| Opponent vs. position | 15th-toughest (31.5 pts/g allowed) | 3rd-toughest (23.2 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 23% target share (last 2) | 29% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | WR |
| Our call | START · Strong WR1 | START · WR2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
It is a coin flip. A.J. Brown projects for 16.2 PPR points and Garrett Wilson for 16.0, within 0.2 of each other.
Break the tie with the floor if you are favored this week, and with the ceiling if you need a big game to win.
They are projected almost level: 16.2 PPR points for A.J. Brown and 16.0 for Garrett Wilson.
The sources range from 14.9 to 18.4 for Brown and from 13.2 to 18.7 for Wilson. Either result is well inside both ranges.
A.J. Brown is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Brown at 14.9 PPR points, against 13.2 for Garrett Wilson.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Garrett Wilson has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Wilson at 18.7 PPR points, against 18.4 for A.J. Brown.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
A.J. Brown plays CHI and Garrett Wilson plays MIA in Week 7.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Brown faces the 15th-toughest defense against WRs and Wilson faces the 3rd-toughest defense against WRs, so A.J. Brown has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games A.J. Brown has drawn 23% of his team's targets, and Garrett Wilson 29% of his team's targets.
Garrett Wilson has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Garrett Wilson.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither A.J. Brown nor Garrett Wilson has an injury designation for Week 7.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). A.J. Brown is projected by 4 of them and Garrett Wilson by 4.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.