Start Drew Lock. Lock is projected for 16.0 PPR points vs 13.3 for Justin Herbert, and faces the 2nd-softest defense against QBs this week.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Drew Lock QB · SEA | Justin Herbert QB · LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 16.0 | 13.3 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 13.6 | 10.8 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 17.2 | 15.3 |
| StatChasers projection | 16.2 (QB18) | 15.3 (QB21) |
| Opponent | vs ARI | vs HOU |
| Opponent vs. position | 2nd-softest (22.3 pts/g allowed) | 13th-softest (18.5 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | — | — |
| Position | QB | QB |
| Our call | SIT · Bench | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Drew Lock. Lock projects for 16.0 PPR points vs ARI, against 13.3 for Justin Herbert vs HOU: a 2.7-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Drew Lock is projected to score more: 16.0 PPR points to 13.3 for Justin Herbert.
The sources range from 13.6 to 17.2 for Lock and from 10.8 to 15.3 for Herbert. The ranges overlap, so Herbert outscoring Lock is a realistic result.
Drew Lock is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Lock at 13.6 PPR points, against 10.8 for Justin Herbert.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Drew Lock has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Lock at 17.2 PPR points, against 15.3 for Justin Herbert.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Drew Lock plays ARI and Justin Herbert plays HOU in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Lock faces the 2nd-softest defense against QBs and Herbert faces the 13th-softest defense against QBs, so Drew Lock has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Drew Lock nor Justin Herbert has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Drew Lock is projected by 6 of them and Justin Herbert by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.