Too close to call: Drew Lock (16.0) and Michael Penix Jr. (15.8) project within 0.2 PPR points of each other in Week 9, and Drew Lock faces the 2nd-softest defense against QBs.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Drew Lock QB · SEA | Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 16.0 | 15.8 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 13.6 | 14.3 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 17.2 | 17.0 |
| StatChasers projection | 16.2 (QB18) | 15.5 (QB19) |
| Opponent | vs ARI | vs CIN |
| Opponent vs. position | 2nd-softest (22.3 pts/g allowed) | 14th-softest (18.4 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | — | — |
| Position | QB | QB |
| Our call | SIT · Bench | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
It is a coin flip. Drew Lock projects for 16.0 PPR points and Michael Penix Jr. for 15.8, within 0.2 of each other.
Break the tie with the floor if you are favored this week, and with the ceiling if you need a big game to win.
They are projected almost level: 16.0 PPR points for Drew Lock and 15.8 for Michael Penix Jr..
The sources range from 13.6 to 17.2 for Lock and from 14.3 to 17.0 for Penix Jr.. Either result is well inside both ranges.
Michael Penix Jr. is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Penix Jr. at 14.3 PPR points, against 13.6 for Drew Lock.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Drew Lock has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Lock at 17.2 PPR points, against 17.0 for Michael Penix Jr..
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Drew Lock plays ARI and Michael Penix Jr. plays CIN in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Lock faces the 2nd-softest defense against QBs and Penix Jr. faces the 14th-softest defense against QBs, so Drew Lock has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Drew Lock nor Michael Penix Jr. has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Drew Lock is projected by 6 of them and Michael Penix Jr. by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.