Start Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is projected for 15.4 PPR points vs 14.2 for Malik Willis, and faces the 2nd-toughest defense against QBs this week.
Updated Oct 24, 4:47 PM ET
| Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | Malik Willis QB · MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 7, avg of sources) | 15.4 | 14.2 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 11.5 | 12.8 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 17.5 | 16.1 |
| StatChasers projection | — | — |
| Opponent | vs SEA | vs NYJ |
| Opponent vs. position | 2nd-toughest (12.3 pts/g allowed) | 8th-toughest (15.1 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | — | — |
| Position | QB | QB |
| Our call | FLEX · Streamer | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes projects for 15.4 PPR points vs SEA, against 14.2 for Malik Willis vs NYJ: a 1.2-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Patrick Mahomes is projected to score more: 15.4 PPR points to 14.2 for Malik Willis.
The sources range from 11.5 to 17.5 for Mahomes and from 12.8 to 16.1 for Willis. The ranges overlap, so Willis outscoring Mahomes is a realistic result.
Malik Willis is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Willis at 12.8 PPR points, against 11.5 for Patrick Mahomes.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Patrick Mahomes has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Mahomes at 17.5 PPR points, against 16.1 for Malik Willis.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Patrick Mahomes plays SEA and Malik Willis plays NYJ in Week 7.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Mahomes faces the 2nd-toughest defense against QBs and Willis faces the 8th-toughest defense against QBs, so Malik Willis has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Patrick Mahomes nor Malik Willis has an injury designation for Week 7.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Patrick Mahomes is projected by 5 of them and Malik Willis by 5.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.