Too close to call: Patrick Mahomes (15.4) and Geno Smith (15.3) project within 0.1 PPR points of each other in Week 7, and Patrick Mahomes faces the 2nd-toughest defense against QBs.
Updated Oct 24, 4:47 PM ET
| Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | Geno Smith QB · NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 7, avg of sources) | 15.4 | 15.3 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 11.5 | 13.6 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 17.5 | 16.4 |
| StatChasers projection | — | — |
| Opponent | vs SEA | vs MIA |
| Opponent vs. position | 2nd-toughest (12.3 pts/g allowed) | 8th-softest (19.4 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | — | — |
| Position | QB | QB |
| Our call | FLEX · Streamer | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
It is a coin flip. Patrick Mahomes projects for 15.4 PPR points and Geno Smith for 15.3, within 0.1 of each other.
Break the tie with the floor if you are favored this week, and with the ceiling if you need a big game to win.
They are projected almost level: 15.4 PPR points for Patrick Mahomes and 15.3 for Geno Smith.
The sources range from 11.5 to 17.5 for Mahomes and from 13.6 to 16.4 for Smith. Either result is well inside both ranges.
Geno Smith is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Smith at 13.6 PPR points, against 11.5 for Patrick Mahomes.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Patrick Mahomes has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Mahomes at 17.5 PPR points, against 16.4 for Geno Smith.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Patrick Mahomes plays SEA and Geno Smith plays MIA in Week 7.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Mahomes faces the 2nd-toughest defense against QBs and Smith faces the 8th-softest defense against QBs, so Geno Smith has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Patrick Mahomes nor Geno Smith has an injury designation for Week 7.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Patrick Mahomes is projected by 5 of them and Geno Smith by 5.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.