Too close to call: Zay Flowers (12.8) and Tyler Warren (12.6) project within 0.2 PPR points of each other in Week 9, and Zay Flowers faces the 6th-softest defense against WRs.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Zay Flowers WR · BAL | Tyler Warren TE · IND | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 12.8 | 12.6 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 11.3 | 11.8 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 13.9 | 13.3 |
| StatChasers projection | 11.3 (WR30) | 13.0 (TE5) |
| Opponent | vs JAX | vs DAL |
| Opponent vs. position | 6th-softest (36.9 pts/g allowed) | 16th-toughest (13.7 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 30% target share (last 3) | 24% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | TE |
| Our call | START · WR3 | START · Strong TE1 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
It is a coin flip. Zay Flowers projects for 12.8 PPR points and Tyler Warren for 12.6, within 0.2 of each other.
Break the tie with the floor if you are favored this week, and with the ceiling if you need a big game to win.
They are projected almost level: 12.8 PPR points for Zay Flowers and 12.6 for Tyler Warren.
The sources range from 11.3 to 13.9 for Flowers and from 11.8 to 13.3 for Warren. Either result is well inside both ranges.
Tyler Warren is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Warren at 11.8 PPR points, against 11.3 for Zay Flowers.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Zay Flowers has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Flowers at 13.9 PPR points, against 13.3 for Tyler Warren.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Zay Flowers plays JAX and Tyler Warren plays DAL in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Flowers faces the 6th-softest defense against WRs and Warren faces the 16th-toughest defense against TEs, so Zay Flowers has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Zay Flowers has drawn 30% of his team's targets, and Tyler Warren 24% of his team's targets.
Zay Flowers has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Zay Flowers.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Zay Flowers nor Tyler Warren has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Zay Flowers is projected by 6 of them and Tyler Warren by 5.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.