Start Zay Flowers. Flowers is projected for 12.8 PPR points vs 12.5 for Travis Kelce, and faces the 6th-softest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Zay Flowers WR · BAL | Travis Kelce TE · KC | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 12.8 | 12.5 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 11.3 | 10.6 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 13.9 | 13.7 |
| StatChasers projection | 11.3 (WR30) | 12.5 (TE6) |
| Opponent | vs JAX | vs NYJ |
| Opponent vs. position | 6th-softest (36.9 pts/g allowed) | 15th-softest (13.9 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 30% target share (last 3) | 20% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | TE |
| Our call | START · WR3 | START · Strong TE1 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Zay Flowers. Flowers projects for 12.8 PPR points vs JAX, against 12.5 for Travis Kelce vs NYJ: a 0.3-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Zay Flowers is projected to score more: 12.8 PPR points to 12.5 for Travis Kelce.
The sources range from 11.3 to 13.9 for Flowers and from 10.6 to 13.7 for Kelce. The ranges overlap, so Kelce outscoring Flowers is a realistic result.
Zay Flowers is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Flowers at 11.3 PPR points, against 10.6 for Travis Kelce.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Zay Flowers has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Flowers at 13.9 PPR points, against 13.7 for Travis Kelce.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Zay Flowers plays JAX and Travis Kelce plays NYJ in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Flowers faces the 6th-softest defense against WRs and Kelce faces the 15th-softest defense against TEs, so Zay Flowers has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Zay Flowers has drawn 30% of his team's targets, and Travis Kelce 20% of his team's targets.
Zay Flowers has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Zay Flowers.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Zay Flowers nor Travis Kelce has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Zay Flowers is projected by 6 of them and Travis Kelce by 5.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.