Michael Penix 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 26
- Height / weight
- 6'3", 220 lb
- Experience
- 3rd season
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 15.0
- Pos rank
- QB35
- Rostered
- 12%
Week 4 at Saints, Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET 17th vs. QBs, neutral
Michael Penix Rest-of-Season Outlook
QB3 for deep leagues only
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished QB33 last season at 13.7 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 1 game he's QB35 at 15.0 PPR points per game, against 13.7 over 9 games last season (QB33). He's running ahead of last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 17th of 41 in passing volume (30.7 attempts per game), 23rd of 41 in efficiency (0.016 EPA per play) and 30th of 41 in rushing (7.8 rush yards per game). Rushing is the soft spot. Drake London and Bijan Robinson are his top two targets.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with Tua Tagovailoa next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Penix enters his first full season as Atlanta's starter carrying a thin but loud nine-game sample. He finished QB29 in 2025 with 1,982 yards, nine touchdowns and just three picks across nine starts, posting a modest 0.016 EPA per play and a 44.8% success rate. The accuracy still lags: a 60.1% completion rate, minus-3.6 CPOE and a 24% bad-throw rate say his deep-shot profile (12.1% of attempts) outran his ball placement.
The upside lives in the arm. He stacked 26 throws of 20-plus yards and a 69-yard long despite the truncated workload, and his sturdier 2024 cameo flashed a 0.131 EPA per play. With 13 sacks and four fumbles, ball security and protection are the swing factors. Project a full 17, and the volume alone lifts him into low-end QB2 territory with weekly ceiling games baked in. A leap in efficiency is the difference between streamer and starter.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 41 quarterbacks who played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Efficiency
Rushing
- Success rate
- 44.8%
- CPOE
- −3.6
- Sacks taken
- 13
- Pressure rate
- 16.6%
- Bad-throw rate
- 24.0%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 12.1%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- The scheduleNone of his next four opponents is a top-10 matchup for QBs.Wk 4 NO, 17thWk 5 BAL, 19thWk 6 CHI, 11thWk 7 SF, 25th
Risk
- Job securityTua Tagovailoa is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- Limited rushing7.8 rush yards per game, 30th of 41 QBs in 2025.
- A tough matchupThe 49ers in Week 7 (25th) is among the stingiest defenses against QBs.
All Michael Penix stats & analysis
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Michael Penix Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Michael Penix's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Michael Penix projects as a qB3 for deep leagues only for the rest of the 2026 season: a streamer in superflex and 2QB leagues and waiver-wire material in 1QB leagues. His rushing (7.8 rush yards per game, 30th of 41 QBs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Michael Penix's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Michael Penix is the QB35 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in QB3 territory, waiver-wire material in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is Michael Penix's projected role going forward?
Michael Penix is the listed starting QB, with Tua Tagovailoa next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
What is Michael Penix's fantasy football upside?
Michael Penix's upside: his ceiling this season is 15.0 PPR points (Week 3, QB21).
What could hurt Michael Penix's fantasy value?
Michael Penix's risks: Tua Tagovailoa is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt, his rushing (7.8 rush yards per game, 30th of 41 QBs in 2025) limits his scoring and the 49ers in Week 7 is a tough matchup. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Michael Penix's remaining fantasy schedule?
Difficult: of his next seven games, 0 come against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 3 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.