Noah Gray 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 27
- Height / weight
- 6'3", 240 lb
- Experience
- 6th season
- Drafted
- 2021 R5, #162
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 2.8
- Pos rank
- TE47
- Rostered
- —
Week 4 at Raiders, Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET 4th vs. TEs, favorable
Noah Gray Rest-of-Season Outlook
depth TE for deep leagues only
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished TE59 last season at 2.4 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's TE47 at 2.8 PPR points per game, against 2.4 over 16 games last season (TE59). The role is producing the same fantasy output two years running.
Last season he ranked 38th of 81 in route participation (42.2%), 41st of 82 in target share (6.7%) and 67th of 82 in efficiency (0.67 yards per route run). Efficiency is the soft spot. Patrick Mahomes is his quarterback.
He's TE2 on the depth chart, so his value depends on the players ahead of him.
The next favorable matchup is the Raiders in Week 4 (4th against TEs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Gray's 2025 was a sharp regression. He played 14 games on a 52.1 percent snap share, ran 265 routes, and turned a 6.7 percent target share into just 21 catches for 178 yards and zero touchdowns, good for 17.8 fantasy points and a TE56 finish. That collapse is stark against 2024, when he caught 40 of 49 targets for 437 yards and five scores on a 0.473 EPA per play to land TE29. His efficiency cratered: 0.67 yards per route run versus 1.34, a -0.16 EPA, and a 35.1 percent success rate.
The profile is entirely matchup- and touchdown-dependent behind Travis Kelce, with red-zone work the only ceiling driver. He saw only two red-zone targets in 2025 after 10 in 2024, and three drops on 24 catchable balls did not help. Now 26, Gray is a blocking-first TE2 whose relevance evaporates when the scores dry up. Leave him on the waiver wire in all redraft formats; he is a desperation bye-week streamer at best.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 81 tight ends who played at least six games. Each bar is one tight end, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Route participation
Target share
Efficiency
- Average depth of target
- 6.5
- Drop rate
- 8.1%
- Red-zone targets
- 2
- Route participation
- 42.2%
- YAC per reception
- 5.1
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft spotThe Raiders in Week 4 is a top-10 matchup for TEs.Wk 4 LV, 4thWk 6 LAC, 19thWk 7 SEA, 18thWk 8 DEN, 13th
Risk
- RoleHe's TE2 on the depth chart.
- Weak efficiency0.67 yards per route run, 67th of 82 TEs in 2025.
- DropsA 8.1% drop rate in 2025.
All Noah Gray stats & analysis
TEs like Noah Gray
Noah Gray Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Noah Gray's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Noah Gray projects as a depth TE for deep leagues only for the rest of the 2026 season: a bench stash in TE-premium leagues and waiver-wire material in 12-team and 10-team leagues. His efficiency (0.67 yards per route run, 67th of 82 TEs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Noah Gray's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Noah Gray is the TE47 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in depth TE territory, waiver-wire material in 12-team leagues.
What is Noah Gray's projected role going forward?
Noah Gray is TE2 on the depth chart, so a bigger role needs an injury or a change ahead of him.
Will Noah Gray get more targets?
Noah Gray's targets are holding steady: 2.0 a game over his last two games against 1.7 for the season. His share of the offense is what his fantasy value rides on.
What is Noah Gray's fantasy football upside?
Noah Gray's upside: his ceiling this season is 6.9 PPR points (Week 3, TE28) and the Raiders in Week 4 is a top-10 matchup for TEs.
What could hurt Noah Gray's fantasy value?
Noah Gray's risks: his efficiency (0.67 yards per route run, 67th of 82 TEs in 2025) limits his scoring. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Noah Gray's remaining fantasy schedule?
Favorable: of his next seven games, 2 come against a top-10 matchup for TEs and 1 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.