Travis Kelce 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 36
- Height / weight
- 6'5", 250 lb
- Experience
- 14th season
- Drafted
- 2013 R3, #63
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 16.4
- Pos rank
- TE3
- Rostered
- 96%
Week 4 at Raiders, Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET 4th vs. TEs, favorable
Travis Kelce Rest-of-Season Outlook
Target-heavy TE1 every week
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished TE3 last season at 11.4 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's TE3 at 16.4 PPR points per game, against 11.4 over 17 games last season (TE3). He's running ahead of last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 5th of 81 in route participation (87.4%), 5th of 82 in target share (19.7%) and 16th of 82 in efficiency (1.55 yards per route run). His points come from his target share. Patrick Mahomes is his quarterback.
The job is secure: he's the listed starter and one of the best at his position. The main risk is health, and Noah Gray is next on the depth chart if he misses time.
The next favorable matchup is the Raiders in Week 4 (4th against TEs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
At 35 Kelce still graded TE4 with 117.2 fantasy points, but the underlying trend is clear: his 19.7 percent target share and 0.197 targets per route run both slipped from 2024 marks of 23.3 and 0.237, and his red-zone looks were halved from 26 to 12. He stayed durable across 17 games on an 81.9 percent snap share, hauling in 76 of 108 targets for 851 yards and five scores, and his 0.364 EPA per play rebounded sharply from 0.162 in 2024, so the efficiency is intact even as the volume erodes.
The warning signs are the seven drops, a 6.5 percent drop rate, and four interceptions thrown his way, plus a 11.2 yard-per-catch figure that leans entirely on Mahomes funneling him short targets. With Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy commanding deeper roles, Kelce projects as a touchdown-dependent back-end TE1 with a thinning ceiling. Draft him as a steady TE1 floor play in the middle rounds, not the positional cheat code he once was.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 81 tight ends who played at least six games. Each bar is one tight end, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Route participation
Target share
Efficiency
- Average depth of target
- 6.8
- Drop rate
- 6.5%
- Red-zone targets
- 12
- Route participation
- 87.4%
- YAC per reception
- 5.6
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft spotThe Raiders in Week 4 is a top-10 matchup for TEs.Wk 4 LV, 4thWk 6 LAC, 19thWk 7 SEA, 18thWk 8 DEN, 13th
- Every-down route participation87.4% route participation, 5th of 81 TEs in 2025.
- Heavy target share19.7% target share, 5th of 82 TEs in 2025.
Risk
- HealthHis role is secure; if he misses time, Noah Gray is next on the depth chart.
- DropsA 6.5% drop rate in 2025.
All Travis Kelce stats & analysis
TEs like Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Travis Kelce's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Travis Kelce projects as a target-heavy TE1 every week for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in TE-premium, 12-team and 10-team leagues. His target share (19.7% target share, 5th of 82 TEs in 2025) supports that. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Travis Kelce's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Travis Kelce is the TE3 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in TE1 territory, a weekly starter in 12-team leagues.
What is Travis Kelce's projected role going forward?
Travis Kelce is the listed starting TE, with Noah Gray next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Travis Kelce get more targets?
Travis Kelce's targets are holding steady: 6.5 a game over his last two games against 6.0 for the season. His share of the offense is what his fantasy value rides on.
What is Travis Kelce's fantasy football upside?
Travis Kelce's upside: his ceiling this season is 25.1 PPR points (Week 2, TE2), his target share (19.7% target share, 5th of 82 TEs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Raiders in Week 4 is a top-10 matchup for TEs.
What could hurt Travis Kelce's fantasy value?
Travis Kelce's risks: Noah Gray is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Travis Kelce's remaining fantasy schedule?
Favorable: of his next seven games, 2 come against a top-10 matchup for TEs and 1 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.