Start J.K. Dobbins. Dobbins is projected for 11.7 PPR points vs 11.4 for Aaron Jones Sr., and faces the 14th-toughest defense against RBs this week.
Updated Oct 24, 4:47 PM ET
| J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN | Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 7, avg of sources) | 11.7 | 11.4 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 9.6 | 8.5 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 14.0 | 12.7 |
| StatChasers projection | — | — |
| Opponent | vs ARI | vs IND |
| Opponent vs. position | 14th-toughest (20.4 pts/g allowed) | 6th-softest (23.9 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 58% carry share (last 3) | 69% carry share (last 3) |
| Position | RB | RB |
| Our call | START · RB2 | START · RB2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start J.K. Dobbins. Dobbins projects for 11.7 PPR points vs ARI, against 11.4 for Aaron Jones Sr. vs IND: a 0.3-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
J.K. Dobbins is projected to score more: 11.7 PPR points to 11.4 for Aaron Jones Sr..
The sources range from 9.6 to 14.0 for Dobbins and from 8.5 to 12.7 for Jones Sr.. The ranges overlap, so Jones Sr. outscoring Dobbins is a realistic result.
J.K. Dobbins is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Dobbins at 9.6 PPR points, against 8.5 for Aaron Jones Sr..
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
J.K. Dobbins has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Dobbins at 14.0 PPR points, against 12.7 for Aaron Jones Sr..
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
J.K. Dobbins plays ARI and Aaron Jones Sr. plays IND in Week 7.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Dobbins faces the 14th-toughest defense against RBs and Jones Sr. faces the 6th-softest defense against RBs, so Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games J.K. Dobbins has drawn 58% of his team's carries, and Aaron Jones Sr. 69% of his team's carries.
Aaron Jones Sr. has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither J.K. Dobbins nor Aaron Jones Sr. has an injury designation for Week 7.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). J.K. Dobbins is projected by 5 of them and Aaron Jones Sr. by 5.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.