Start Aaron Jones Sr.. Jones Sr. is projected for 8.5 PPR points vs 7.3 for Kaelon Black, and faces the 3rd-softest defense against RBs this week.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN | Kaelon Black RB · SF | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 8.5 | 7.3 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 6.8 | 5.0 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 9.8 | 10.7 |
| StatChasers projection | 8.6 (RB33) | 7.0 (RB38) |
| Opponent | vs BUF | vs LV |
| Opponent vs. position | 3rd-softest (26.5 pts/g allowed) | 6th-softest (25.3 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 46% carry share (last 3) | 34% carry share (last 3) |
| Position | RB | RB |
| Our call | FLEX · Flex | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Aaron Jones Sr.. Jones Sr. projects for 8.5 PPR points vs BUF, against 7.3 for Kaelon Black vs LV: a 1.2-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Aaron Jones Sr. is projected to score more: 8.5 PPR points to 7.3 for Kaelon Black.
The sources range from 6.8 to 9.8 for Jones Sr. and from 5.0 to 10.7 for Black. The ranges overlap, so Black outscoring Jones Sr. is a realistic result.
Aaron Jones Sr. is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Jones Sr. at 6.8 PPR points, against 5.0 for Kaelon Black.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Kaelon Black has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Black at 10.7 PPR points, against 9.8 for Aaron Jones Sr..
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Aaron Jones Sr. plays BUF and Kaelon Black plays LV in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Jones Sr. faces the 3rd-softest defense against RBs and Black faces the 6th-softest defense against RBs, so Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Aaron Jones Sr. has drawn 46% of his team's carries, and Kaelon Black 34% of his team's carries.
Aaron Jones Sr. has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Aaron Jones Sr. nor Kaelon Black has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Aaron Jones Sr. is projected by 6 of them and Kaelon Black by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.