Start A.J. Brown. Brown is projected for 15.0 PPR points vs 13.8 for DeVonta Smith, and faces the 3rd-toughest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Oct 30, 7:29 AM ET
| A.J. Brown WR · NE | DeVonta Smith WR · PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 8, avg of sources) | 15.0 | 13.8 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 13.4 | 12.0 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 16.6 | 15.9 |
| StatChasers projection | 14.5 (WR14) | — |
| Opponent | vs MIA | vs WAS |
| Opponent vs. position | 3rd-toughest (23.8 pts/g allowed) | 6th-softest (35.9 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 22% target share (last 3) | 34% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | WR |
| Our call | START · WR2 | START · WR2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start A.J. Brown. Brown projects for 15.0 PPR points vs MIA, against 13.8 for DeVonta Smith vs WAS: a 1.2-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
A.J. Brown is projected to score more: 15.0 PPR points to 13.8 for DeVonta Smith.
The sources range from 13.4 to 16.6 for Brown and from 12.0 to 15.9 for Smith. The ranges overlap, so Smith outscoring Brown is a realistic result.
A.J. Brown is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Brown at 13.4 PPR points, against 12.0 for DeVonta Smith.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
A.J. Brown has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Brown at 16.6 PPR points, against 15.9 for DeVonta Smith.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
A.J. Brown plays MIA and DeVonta Smith plays WAS in Week 8.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Brown faces the 3rd-toughest defense against WRs and Smith faces the 6th-softest defense against WRs, so DeVonta Smith has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games A.J. Brown has drawn 22% of his team's targets, and DeVonta Smith 34% of his team's targets.
DeVonta Smith has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is DeVonta Smith.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither A.J. Brown nor DeVonta Smith has an injury designation for Week 8.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). A.J. Brown is projected by 5 of them and DeVonta Smith by 4.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.