Start A.J. Brown. Brown is projected for 16.2 PPR points vs 15.5 for Trey McBride, and faces the 15th-toughest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Oct 24, 4:47 PM ET
| A.J. Brown WR · NE | Trey McBride TE · ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 7, avg of sources) | 16.2 | 15.5 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 14.9 | 15.2 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 18.4 | 15.9 |
| StatChasers projection | — | — |
| Opponent | vs CHI | vs DEN |
| Opponent vs. position | 15th-toughest (31.5 pts/g allowed) | 14th-softest (13.3 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 23% target share (last 2) | 27% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | TE |
| Our call | START · Strong WR1 | START · Strong TE1 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start A.J. Brown. Brown projects for 16.2 PPR points vs CHI, against 15.5 for Trey McBride vs DEN: a 0.7-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
A.J. Brown is projected to score more: 16.2 PPR points to 15.5 for Trey McBride.
The sources range from 14.9 to 18.4 for Brown and from 15.2 to 15.9 for McBride. The ranges overlap, so McBride outscoring Brown is a realistic result.
Trey McBride is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has McBride at 15.2 PPR points, against 14.9 for A.J. Brown.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
A.J. Brown has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Brown at 18.4 PPR points, against 15.9 for Trey McBride.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
A.J. Brown plays CHI and Trey McBride plays DEN in Week 7.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Brown faces the 15th-toughest defense against WRs and McBride faces the 14th-softest defense against TEs, so Trey McBride has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games A.J. Brown has drawn 23% of his team's targets, and Trey McBride 27% of his team's targets.
Trey McBride has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Trey McBride.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither A.J. Brown nor Trey McBride has an injury designation for Week 7.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). A.J. Brown is projected by 4 of them and Trey McBride by 4.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.