Start Derrick Henry. Henry is projected for 16.7 PPR points vs 15.8 for Christian Watson, and faces the 3rd-softest defense against RBs this week.
Updated Oct 30, 7:29 AM ET
| Derrick Henry RB · BAL | Christian Watson WR · GB | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 8, avg of sources) | 16.7 | 15.8 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 15.8 | 14.5 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 18.8 | 18.2 |
| StatChasers projection | 16.4 (RB13) | 15.2 (WR13) |
| Opponent | vs BUF | vs CAR |
| Opponent vs. position | 3rd-softest (27.3 pts/g allowed) | 6th-toughest (27.7 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 68% carry share (last 3) | 21% target share (last 3) |
| Position | RB | WR |
| Our call | START · RB2 | START · WR2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Derrick Henry. Henry projects for 16.7 PPR points vs BUF, against 15.8 for Christian Watson vs CAR: a 0.9-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Derrick Henry is projected to score more: 16.7 PPR points to 15.8 for Christian Watson.
The sources range from 15.8 to 18.8 for Henry and from 14.5 to 18.2 for Watson. The ranges overlap, so Watson outscoring Henry is a realistic result.
Derrick Henry is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Henry at 15.8 PPR points, against 14.5 for Christian Watson.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Derrick Henry has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Henry at 18.8 PPR points, against 18.2 for Christian Watson.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Derrick Henry plays BUF and Christian Watson plays CAR in Week 8.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Henry faces the 3rd-softest defense against RBs and Watson faces the 6th-toughest defense against WRs, so Derrick Henry has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Derrick Henry has drawn 68% of his team's carries, and Christian Watson 21% of his team's targets.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Christian Watson.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Derrick Henry nor Christian Watson has an injury designation for Week 8.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Derrick Henry is projected by 6 of them and Christian Watson by 5.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.