Start Zay Flowers. Flowers is projected for 18.8 PPR points vs 16.7 for Derrick Henry, and faces the 1st-softest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Oct 30, 7:29 AM ET
| Zay Flowers WR · BAL | Derrick Henry RB · BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 8, avg of sources) | 18.8 | 16.7 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 18.2 | 15.8 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 20.1 | 18.8 |
| StatChasers projection | 18.2 (WR7) | 16.4 (RB13) |
| Opponent | vs BUF | vs BUF |
| Opponent vs. position | 1st-softest (42.3 pts/g allowed) | 3rd-softest (27.3 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 32% target share (last 3) | 68% carry share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | RB |
| Our call | START · Strong WR1 | START · RB2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Zay Flowers. Flowers projects for 18.8 PPR points vs BUF, against 16.7 for Derrick Henry vs BUF: a 2.1-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Zay Flowers is projected to score more: 18.8 PPR points to 16.7 for Derrick Henry.
The sources range from 18.2 to 20.1 for Flowers and from 15.8 to 18.8 for Henry. The ranges overlap, so Henry outscoring Flowers is a realistic result.
Zay Flowers is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Flowers at 18.2 PPR points, against 15.8 for Derrick Henry.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Zay Flowers has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Flowers at 20.1 PPR points, against 18.8 for Derrick Henry.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Zay Flowers plays BUF and Derrick Henry plays BUF in Week 8.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Flowers faces the 1st-softest defense against WRs and Henry faces the 3rd-softest defense against RBs, so Zay Flowers has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Zay Flowers has drawn 32% of his team's targets, and Derrick Henry 68% of his team's carries.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Zay Flowers.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Zay Flowers nor Derrick Henry has an injury designation for Week 8.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Zay Flowers is projected by 5 of them and Derrick Henry by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.