Start DeVonta Smith. Smith is projected for 13.1 PPR points vs 12.6 for Luther Burden III, and faces the 7th-softest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Oct 24, 4:47 PM ET
| DeVonta Smith WR · PHI | Luther Burden III WR · CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 7, avg of sources) | 13.1 | 12.6 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 11.6 | 12.6 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 14.1 | 12.7 |
| StatChasers projection | — | — |
| Opponent | vs DAL | vs NE |
| Opponent vs. position | 7th-softest (36.2 pts/g allowed) | 16th-toughest (31.7 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 34% target share (last 3) | 19% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | WR |
| Our call | START · WR2 | START · WR2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start DeVonta Smith. Smith projects for 13.1 PPR points vs DAL, against 12.6 for Luther Burden III vs NE: a 0.5-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
DeVonta Smith is projected to score more: 13.1 PPR points to 12.6 for Luther Burden III.
The sources range from 11.6 to 14.1 for Smith and from 12.6 to 12.7 for Burden III. The ranges overlap, so Burden III outscoring Smith is a realistic result.
Luther Burden III is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Burden III at 12.6 PPR points, against 11.6 for DeVonta Smith.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
DeVonta Smith has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Smith at 14.1 PPR points, against 12.7 for Luther Burden III.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
DeVonta Smith plays DAL and Luther Burden III plays NE in Week 7.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Smith faces the 7th-softest defense against WRs and Burden III faces the 16th-toughest defense against WRs, so DeVonta Smith has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games DeVonta Smith has drawn 34% of his team's targets, and Luther Burden III 19% of his team's targets.
DeVonta Smith has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is DeVonta Smith.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither DeVonta Smith nor Luther Burden III has an injury designation for Week 7.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). DeVonta Smith is projected by 3 of them and Luther Burden III by 4.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.