Start Isaiah Likely. Likely is projected for 12.9 PPR points vs 12.6 for Luther Burden III, and faces the 11th-toughest defense against TEs this week.
Updated Oct 24, 4:47 PM ET
| Isaiah Likely TE · NYG | Luther Burden III WR · CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 7, avg of sources) | 12.9 | 12.6 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 12.0 | 12.6 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 14.3 | 12.7 |
| StatChasers projection | — | — |
| Opponent | vs HOU | vs NE |
| Opponent vs. position | 11th-toughest (10.6 pts/g allowed) | 16th-toughest (31.7 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 29% target share (last 3) | 19% target share (last 3) |
| Position | TE | WR |
| Our call | START · Strong TE1 | START · WR2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Isaiah Likely. Likely projects for 12.9 PPR points vs HOU, against 12.6 for Luther Burden III vs NE: a 0.3-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Isaiah Likely is projected to score more: 12.9 PPR points to 12.6 for Luther Burden III.
The sources range from 12.0 to 14.3 for Likely and from 12.6 to 12.7 for Burden III. The ranges overlap, so Burden III outscoring Likely is a realistic result.
Luther Burden III is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Burden III at 12.6 PPR points, against 12.0 for Isaiah Likely.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Isaiah Likely has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Likely at 14.3 PPR points, against 12.7 for Luther Burden III.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Isaiah Likely plays HOU and Luther Burden III plays NE in Week 7.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Likely faces the 11th-toughest defense against TEs and Burden III faces the 16th-toughest defense against WRs, so Luther Burden III has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Isaiah Likely has drawn 29% of his team's targets, and Luther Burden III 19% of his team's targets.
Isaiah Likely has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Isaiah Likely.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Isaiah Likely nor Luther Burden III has an injury designation for Week 7.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Isaiah Likely is projected by 4 of them and Luther Burden III by 4.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.