Start Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is projected for 19.1 PPR points vs 16.0 for Drew Lock, and faces the 16th-softest defense against QBs this week.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | Drew Lock QB · SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 19.1 | 16.0 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 17.0 | 13.6 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 21.1 | 17.2 |
| StatChasers projection | 20.5 (QB4) | 16.2 (QB18) |
| Opponent | vs NYJ | vs ARI |
| Opponent vs. position | 16th-softest (18.1 pts/g allowed) | 2nd-softest (22.3 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | — | — |
| Position | QB | QB |
| Our call | START · Strong QB1 | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes projects for 19.1 PPR points vs NYJ, against 16.0 for Drew Lock vs ARI: a 3.1-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Patrick Mahomes is projected to score more: 19.1 PPR points to 16.0 for Drew Lock.
The sources range from 17.0 to 21.1 for Mahomes and from 13.6 to 17.2 for Lock. The ranges overlap, so Lock outscoring Mahomes is a realistic result.
Patrick Mahomes is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Mahomes at 17.0 PPR points, against 13.6 for Drew Lock.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Patrick Mahomes has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Mahomes at 21.1 PPR points, against 17.2 for Drew Lock.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Patrick Mahomes plays NYJ and Drew Lock plays ARI in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Mahomes faces the 16th-softest defense against QBs and Lock faces the 2nd-softest defense against QBs, so Drew Lock has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Patrick Mahomes nor Drew Lock has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Patrick Mahomes is projected by 6 of them and Drew Lock by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.