Start Joe Burrow. Burrow is projected for 20.5 PPR points vs 16.2 for Geno Smith, and faces the 11th-toughest defense against QBs this week.
Updated Oct 30, 7:29 AM ET
| Joe Burrow QB · CIN | Geno Smith QB · NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 8, avg of sources) | 20.5 | 16.2 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 18.4 | 13.5 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 22.9 | 18.5 |
| StatChasers projection | 19.9 (QB5) | 15.8 (QB19) |
| Opponent | vs TEN | vs LV |
| Opponent vs. position | 11th-toughest (16.1 pts/g allowed) | 5th-softest (20.8 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | — | — |
| Position | QB | QB |
| Our call | START · Strong QB1 | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Joe Burrow. Burrow projects for 20.5 PPR points vs TEN, against 16.2 for Geno Smith vs LV: a 4.3-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Joe Burrow is projected to score more: 20.5 PPR points to 16.2 for Geno Smith.
The sources range from 18.4 to 22.9 for Burrow and from 13.5 to 18.5 for Smith. The ranges overlap, so Smith outscoring Burrow is a realistic result.
Joe Burrow is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Burrow at 18.4 PPR points, against 13.5 for Geno Smith.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Joe Burrow has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Burrow at 22.9 PPR points, against 18.5 for Geno Smith.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Joe Burrow plays TEN and Geno Smith plays LV in Week 8.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Burrow faces the 11th-toughest defense against QBs and Smith faces the 5th-softest defense against QBs, so Geno Smith has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Joe Burrow nor Geno Smith has an injury designation for Week 8.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Joe Burrow is projected by 6 of them and Geno Smith by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.