A.J. Brown 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 29
- Height / weight
- 6'1", 226 lb
- Experience
- 8th season
- Drafted
- 2019 R2, #51
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 5.6
- Pos rank
- WR121
- Rostered
- 95%
Week 4 at Bills, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 7th vs. WRs, favorable
A.J. Brown Rest-of-Season Outlook
Target-heavy depth WR on the sideline for now
On injured reserve, ankle.
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished WR11 last season at 14.7 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 1 game he's WR121 at 5.6 PPR points per game, against 14.7 over 15 games last season (WR11). He's running behind last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 9th of 142 in target volume (26.1% target share), 16th of 142 in downfield role (31.8% air-yards share) and 18th of 142 in efficiency (2.27 yards per route run). His points come from his target volume. Drake Maye is his quarterback.
He's on injured reserve, ankle. Until he's back, his value is a bench spot at most.
The next favorable matchup is the Bills in Week 4 (7th against WRs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Even in a frustrating 2025, Brown still bent defenses toward him: a 26.1% target share, 0.614 WOPR and 31.8% of Philadelphia's air yards, with a positive 0.278 EPA per play across 121 looks. The dip to 1,003 yards and 142.3 fantasy points (WR18) was a volume and efficiency correction off his 0.637 EPA monster 2024, not a sign of decline at 28. His hands stayed elite, just one drop on 79 catchable balls, and he buried 14 catches of 20-plus yards.
Now he leaves a crowded Eagles pecking order to become the undisputed No. 1 for an ascending Drake Maye in a pass-leaning attack. That setup points squarely at a target share north of his recent marks and the bounce-back projection of roughly 90 grabs, 1,273 yards and eight scores. The schedule grades tough, but volume this concentrated is exactly how WR1 ceilings get rebuilt. Draft him as a back-end WR1.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 142 receivers who played at least six games. Each bar is one receiver, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Target volume
Downfield role
Efficiency
- Average depth of target
- 11.8
- Drop rate
- 0.8%
- Red-zone targets
- 13
- Route participation
- 83.4%
- YAC per reception
- 3.4
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft spotThe Bills in Week 4 is a top-10 matchup for WRs.Wk 4 BUF, 7thWk 5 LV, 29thWk 6 NYJ, 22ndWk 7 CHI, 25th
- Heavy target volume26.1% target share, 9th of 142 WRs in 2025.
- Downfield role31.8% air-yards share, 16th of 142 WRs in 2025.
Risk
- InjuryHe's on injured reserve, ankle.
- Tough matchupsThe Raiders in Week 5 (29th) and the Bears in Week 7 (25th) are among the stingiest defenses against WRs.
All A.J. Brown stats & analysis
WRs like A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is A.J. Brown's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
A.J. Brown projects as a target-heavy depth WR on the sideline for now for the rest of the 2026 season: waiver-wire material in 12-team PPR, 10-team PPR and half-PPR leagues. His target volume (26.1% target share, 9th of 142 WRs in 2025) supports that. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is A.J. Brown's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
A.J. Brown is the WR121 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in depth WR territory, waiver-wire material in 10-team PPR leagues.
What is A.J. Brown's fantasy football upside?
A.J. Brown's upside: his ceiling this season is 5.6 PPR points (Week 1, WR67), his target volume (26.1% target share, 9th of 142 WRs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Bills in Week 4 is a top-10 matchup for WRs.
What could hurt A.J. Brown's fantasy value?
A.J. Brown's risks: he is on injured reserve, ankle and the Raiders in Week 5 and the Bears in Week 7 are tough matchups. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is A.J. Brown's remaining fantasy schedule?
About average: of his next seven games, 3 come against a top-10 matchup for WRs and 3 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.