AFC East · 2026 Season
New England Patriots
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New England Patriots
New England Patriots Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−2.2%19thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate80%2ndThrows inside the 20 — Hollins's 3 end-zone targets lead the team
- Neutral pace32.3s10th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a fast offense means more snaps for every starter
- Plays per game59.317thOffensive plays a game — league-average volume, so shares decide it
- Team xFP / game75.227thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates — a thin pie, so only the top shares pay
The Target Tree
All 86 Patriots pass attempts through Week 4
- Mack Hollins 18.6%
- DeMario Douglas 16.3%
- Rhamondre Stevenson 12.8%
- Romeo Doubs 12.8%
- Hunter Henry 11.6%
- Williams/Brown/Chism 14.0%
- Everyone else 9.3%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 4.7%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Rhamondre Stevenson 51.5%
- TreVeyon Henderson 25.2%
- Corey Kiner 15.5%
- Other backs 7.8%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 17.7Stevenson weighted opps/game — RB24 in the NFL
- 12Stevenson high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 13.0Henderson weighted opps/game
- +3.1Stevenson wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Stevenson's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 64% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 51-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 37% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Henderson math if Stevenson misses time: Henderson backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Stevenson absence projects Henderson to ~56% of weighted opportunities — about 22.9 a game, an RB2 by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 2.85 attLeft end
- 2.88 attLeft tackle
- 3.649 attMiddle
- 4.67 attRight tackle
- 1.03 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The right side is the run game's engine: 4.6 yards per carry behind right tackle — 14% of all designed runs go that way. Interior volume (49 attempts) does the clock work at 3.6; the right edge does the damage. When the line's right side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Maye Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 7%11.3 YPADeep left
- 1%0.0 YPADeep middle
- 8%18.0 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 37%6.8 YPAShort left
- 12%7.3 YPAShort middle
- 35%4.9 YPAShort right · Hollins
The short middle is the efficiency engine (7.3 YPA). Maye keeps 84% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep right his most explosive zone (18 YPA on 7 attempts). Doubs's fantasy problem, mapped: a 18.4-yard aDOT puts him in the 16% deep slice of this chart while the short middle feasts. Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB1, 48% of RB touchesRB24 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 48% | 12.8%−8.5 vs W1 | 60%−33 vs W1 | 1 ▲0 · 0 · 1 | Starter | |
A shared backfield. 51% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. He's −2.2 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Mack HollinsWR1WR37 in target share, NFL | 0.45strong — elite at 0.60 | 18.6%+13.8 vs W1 | 72%+6 vs W1 | 4 ▲1 · 0 · 3 — leads team | Starter | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 15% → 9% → 29% over the last 3 games, with a 24.4% first-read share saying the plays are being designed for him. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. Production is running right at expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| DeMario DouglasWR2WR49 in target share, NFL | 0.38flex range | 16.3%−5.1 vs W1 | 57%steady | 1 ▲0 · 0 · 1 | Flex | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 16.3% target share and 7.6 expected points a game, with a 22.2% first-read share; a 19% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's −3.0 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Romeo DoubsWR3WR62 in target share, NFL | 0.37flex range | 12.8%+3.8 vs W1 | 65%+17 vs W1 | 1 ▲0 · 0 · 1 | Volatile | |
The deep-decoy profile. A 18.4-yard aDOT sits past the depth where weekly production turns boom/bust, and a 12.8% target share says he isn't earning volume when he's out there; a 6.7% first-read share means the plays are rarely designed for him. Best-ball ceiling, seasonal-league headache. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Hunter HenryTE1TE24 in target share, NFL | 0.25streamer range | 11.6%−2.6 vs W1 | 78%−6 vs W1 | 10 · 1 · 0 | Volatile | |
Not enough of the pie. A 11.6% target share is under the line where weekly fantasy value lives, and a 13.3% first-read share says he's rarely the design. He needs an injury above him or a role change, not a better matchup. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| TreVeyon HendersonRB2 · handcuff, 30% of RB touchesRB37 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 30% | 1.2%+3.2 vs W2 | 30%−23 vs W2 | 1 ▲– · 0 · 1 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 30% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Stevenson misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Corey KinerRB3 · handcuff, 18% of RB touchesRB66 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 18% | 1.2%+3.2 vs W1 | 11%steady | 00 · 0 · 0 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 18% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Stevenson misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Drake MayeQB1QB25 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 94%−19 vs W1 | 2 ▲0 · 0 · 2 | Volatile | |
A pocket passer's profile. 1 green-zone carry and a 10.1% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB25 in expected points). He's −7.1 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Mack Hollins
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +6snap share pts since W1
- +13.8target share pts since W1
Watch
Hunter Henry
Under 15% target share on a shrinking snap count. One more quiet week and he's droppable in 12-team leagues; an injury above him is the fastest path back.
- 6.5%W3 target share
- 1RZ touches since W1
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Hollins gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
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- Fantasy Points AllowedHow New England's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the New England Patriots in target share?
Mack Hollins leads the New England Patriots with a 18.6% target share through Week 4, up 13.8 points since Week 1. DeMario Douglas is second at 16.3%.