Brian Thomas Jr. 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 24
- Height / weight
- 6'2", 209 lb
- Experience
- 3rd season
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 4.3
- Pos rank
- WR91
- Rostered
- 47%
Week 8 vs. Colts, Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET 23rd vs. WRs, tough
Brian Thomas Jr. Rest-of-Season Outlook
Through 6 games he's WR91 at 4.3 PPR points per game, against 9.9 over 14 games last season (WR42). He's running behind last season's pace.
Through Week 7 he ranks 60th of 96 in target volume (10.7% target share) and 55th of 96 in downfield role (14.6% air-yards share). Target volume is the soft spot. Trevor Lawrence is his quarterback.
He's WR2 on the depth chart, so his value depends on the players ahead of him.
The next favorable matchups are the Ravens in Week 9 (7th against WRs) and the Titans in Week 10 (8th against WRs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
The numbers scream regression in both directions. As a rookie, Thomas posted a top-three season: 1,282 yards, 10 scores, a 0.392 EPA per play and 2.58 yards per route on a 25.5% target share. Year two cratered to 707 yards and two touchdowns across 14 games, with EPA falling to 0.189, route productivity halved to 1.63, and target share sliced to 16.6%. The volume evaporated.
Much of that collapse is fixable. A 52.7% catch rate and 10 drops on 58 catchable balls (11% drop rate, up from 5.3%) point to poor ball security and shaky quarterback play rather than lost talent. The downfield profile held firm, 14.45 air yards per target and a 26.9% air-yards share, so the alpha role and field-stretching usage remain intact. At 22 with a proven ceiling, he's a clear buy-low whose price should reflect the down year, not the rookie breakout.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2026 rank through Week 7 among the 96 receivers who have played at least six games. Each bar is one receiver, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Target volume
Downfield role
- Average depth of target
- 11.5
- Drop rate
- 10.5%
- Red-zone targets
- 3
- YAC per reception
- 0.8
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft stretchThe Ravens in Week 9 and the Titans in Week 10 are top-10 matchups for WRs.Wk 8 IND, 23rdWk 9 BAL, 7thWk 10 TEN, 8thWk 11 NYG, 13th
Risk
- RoleHe's WR2 on the depth chart.
- A tough matchupThe Colts in Week 8 (23rd) is among the stingiest defenses against WRs.
- DropsA 10.5% drop rate in 2026.
Keep researching Brian Thomas Jr
- WR rest-of-season rankingsWhere every WR ranks for the rest of 2026Open
- Jaguars depth chartWho starts, who backs up, and who is next man upOpen
- WR strength of scheduleWhich defenses WRs face the rest of the wayOpen
- Trade value chartWhat every player is worth in a redraft tradeOpen
- Jaguars usage reportSnap share, targets and touches by playerOpen
- WR projectionsWeekly and rest-of-season WR projectionsOpen
- Jaguars scheduleEvery remaining opponent and the fantasy matchupOpen
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Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Brian Thomas Jr.'s fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Brian Thomas Jr. projects as a depth WR for deep leagues only for the rest of the 2026 season: waiver-wire material in 12-team PPR, 10-team PPR and half-PPR leagues. His target volume (10.7% target share, 60th of 96 WRs in 2026) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Brian Thomas Jr.'s rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Brian Thomas Jr. is the WR91 in PPR points per game through Week 7. That puts him in depth WR territory, waiver-wire material in 10-team PPR leagues.
What is Brian Thomas Jr.'s projected role going forward?
Brian Thomas Jr. is WR2 on the depth chart, so a bigger role needs an injury or a change ahead of him.
Will Brian Thomas Jr. get more targets?
Brian Thomas Jr.'s targets are holding steady: 2.5 a game over his last two games against 3.3 for the season. His share of the offense is what his fantasy value rides on.
What is Brian Thomas Jr.'s fantasy football upside?
Brian Thomas Jr.'s upside: his ceiling this season is 9.7 PPR points (Week 4, WR43) and the Ravens in Week 9 and the Titans in Week 10 are top-10 matchups for WRs.
What could hurt Brian Thomas Jr.'s fantasy value?
Brian Thomas Jr.'s risks: his target volume (10.7% target share, 60th of 96 WRs in 2026) limits his scoring and the Colts in Week 8 is a tough matchup. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Brian Thomas Jr.'s remaining fantasy schedule?
Favorable: of his next seven games, 3 come against a top-10 matchup for WRs and 1 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.