AFC South · 2026 Season
Jacksonville Jaguars
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−3.9%23rdRuns more than game situations call for — a cap on the pass-catchers' volume and a floor under Tuten
- Red-zone pass rate54%19thBalanced inside the 20 — Tuten leads the team with 7 red-zone touches
- Neutral pace32.9s15th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations
- Plays per game55.728thOffensive plays a game — fewer snaps to go around, so shares matter more
- Team xFP / game81.524thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 80 Jaguars pass attempts through Week 4
- Parker Washington 28.8%
- Brian Thomas 15.0%
- Jakobi Meyers 13.8%
- Brenton Strange 12.5%
- Bhayshul Tuten 6.3%
- Cameron/Abdullah/Allen 12.5%
- Everyone else 5.0%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 5.0%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Bhayshul Tuten 55.8%
- Chris Rodriguez 21.1%
- Ameer Abdullah 16.8%
- Other backs 6.3%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 17.7Tuten weighted opps/game — RB24 in the NFL
- 7Tuten high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 6.7Rodriguez weighted opps/game
- +10.3Tuten wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Tuten's reception count stays capped: Chris Rodriguez owns 50% of the backs' third-down work. Tuten's 28-catch pace isn't a talent question — the passing-down role belongs to Rodriguez. Green flag for his rushing floor, hard ceiling on his PPR upside.
The Rodriguez math if Tuten misses time: Rodriguez backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Tuten absence projects Rodriguez to ~53% of weighted opportunities — about 16.9 a game, flex volume at best.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 6.614 attLeft end
- 4.89 attLeft tackle
- 3.734 attMiddle
- 3.010 attRight tackle
- 4.713 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The left side is the run game's engine: 6.6 yards per carry off left end and 4.8 behind left tackle — 29% of all designed runs go that way, and two of Tuten's three longest runs came off the left side. Interior volume (34 attempts) does the clock work at 3.7; the left edge does the damage. When the line's left side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Lawrence Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 8%10.0 YPADeep left
- 1%32.0 YPADeep middle
- 3%15.0 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 40%7.8 YPAShort left · Washington
- 16%8.3 YPAShort middle
- 33%5.2 YPAShort right
The short middle is the efficiency engine (8.3 YPA). Lawrence keeps 89% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep right his most explosive zone (15 YPA on 2 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker WashingtonWR1WR4 in target share, NFL | 0.75elite | 28.8%−8.2 vs W1 | 75%+20 vs W1 | 3 ▲0 · 0 · 3 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 45.4% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 37% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 14.3-yard aDOT keeps his ceiling high and his floor jumpy. He's scoring +1.6 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 14.8 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Bhayshul TutenRB1, 59% of RB touchesRB24 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 59% | 6.3%+2.8 vs W1 | 49%steady | 7 ▲0 · 3 · 4 — leads team | Starter | |
A shared backfield. 56% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. Production is running +0.9 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Jakobi MeyersWR3WR58 in target share, NFL | 0.32flex range | 13.8%+19.9 vs W1 | 79%+16 vs W1 | 2 ▲0 · 0 · 2 | Volatile | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 9% → 3% → 29% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. He's scoring +5.1 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 6.7 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Brenton StrangeTE1TE19 in target share, NFL | 0.27streamer range | 12.5%+4.9 vs W1 | 76%+9 vs W1 | 21 · 1 · 0 | Volatile | |
The role is arriving before the box score does. His target share has run 13% → 7% → 18% over the last 3 games. Volume that is growing this fast gets repriced the week it scores. Production is running +0.2 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Brian ThomasWR2WR55 in target share, NFL | 0.35flex range | 15.0%−9.4 vs W1 | 42%steady | 00 · 0 · 0 | Flex | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 15% target share and 6.2 expected points a game, with a 15.2% first-read share; a 18% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. Production is running −0.9 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Chris RodriguezRB2 · handcuff, 24% of RB touchesRB60 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 24% | 0.0%steady | 28%−19 vs W1 | 5 ▲1 · 1 · 3 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 24% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Tuten misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Ameer AbdullahRB3 · handcuff, 15% of RB touchesRB66 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 15% | 3.8%steady | 10%steady | 1 ▲0 · 0 · 1 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 15% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Tuten misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Trevor LawrenceQB1QB20 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 94%+7 vs W1 | 1 ▲0 · 0 · 1 | Volatile | |
A pocket passer's profile. 0 green-zone carries and a 2.3% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB20 in expected points). Production is running +1.1 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Jakobi Meyers
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +16snap share pts since W1
- +19.9target share pts since W1
Sell high
Brian Thomas
Season totals still read like a starter, but the share just fell to a season low. Name value currently exceeds trajectory.
- −9.4target share pts since W1
- 3.6%W3 share — season low
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Meyers gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Jacksonville's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Jacksonville Jaguars in target share?
Parker Washington leads the Jacksonville Jaguars with a 28.8% target share through Week 4, down 8.2 points since Week 1. Brian Thomas is second at 15.0%.