Jaylen Waddle 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 27
- Height / weight
- 5'10", 185 lb
- Experience
- 6th season
- Drafted
- 2021 R1, #6
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 9.8
- Pos rank
- WR38
- Rostered
- 97%
Week 4 at 49ers, Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET 23rd vs. WRs, tough
Jaylen Waddle Rest-of-Season Outlook
Downfield WR4 for deep leagues only
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished WR24 last season at 12.1 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's WR38 at 9.8 PPR points per game, against 12.1 over 16 games last season (WR24). He's running behind last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 16th of 142 in target volume (21.6% target share), 3rd of 142 in downfield role (38.8% air-yards share) and 15th of 142 in efficiency (2.33 yards per route run). His points come from his downfield role. Bo Nix is his quarterback.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with Troy Franklin next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
The next favorable matchup is the Cardinals in Week 7 (4th against WRs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Don't let the modest box score fool you: Waddle's 2025 was quietly elite by efficiency. He posted a 0.345 EPA per play and a 56% success rate while commanding a 21.6% target share and a 0.597 WOPR across 16 games. His 2.33 yards per route run and 13.06 air yards per target show a downfield threat who simply lacked enough looks in Miami's run-leaning attack, turning 100 targets into 64 grabs for 910 yards and six scores.
Now he's the centerpiece of Denver's passing game, and that volume jump is the whole thesis. Bo Nix tilts short and intermediate, which fits Waddle's separation profile even if it caps the air-yard ceiling. His three prior 21-plus target-share campaigns all cleared 18.9%, so the role is proven. Injuries remain the lone caveat, but a true No. 1 workload makes a WR2 finish the floor and a breakout entirely live.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 142 receivers who played at least six games. Each bar is one receiver, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Target volume
Downfield role
Efficiency
- Average depth of target
- 13.1
- Drop rate
- 5.0%
- Red-zone targets
- 11
- Route participation
- 75.7%
- YAC per reception
- 3.6
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft spotThe Cardinals in Week 7 is a top-10 matchup for WRs.Wk 4 SF, 23rdWk 5 LAC, 16thWk 6 SEA, 30thWk 7 ARI, 4th
- Heavy target volume21.6% target share, 16th of 142 WRs in 2025.
- Downfield role38.8% air-yards share, 3rd of 142 WRs in 2025.
Risk
- Job securityTroy Franklin is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- Tough matchupsThe 49ers in Week 4 (23rd) and the Seahawks in Week 6 (30th) are among the stingiest defenses against WRs.
All Jaylen Waddle stats & analysis
WRs like Jaylen Waddle
Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Jaylen Waddle's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Jaylen Waddle projects as a downfield WR4 for deep leagues only for the rest of the 2026 season: a bench stash in 12-team PPR leagues, waiver-wire material in 10-team PPR leagues and a bench stash in half-PPR leagues. His downfield role (38.8% air-yards share, 3rd of 142 WRs in 2025) supports that. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Jaylen Waddle's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Jaylen Waddle is the WR38 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in WR4 territory, waiver-wire material in 10-team PPR leagues.
What is Jaylen Waddle's projected role going forward?
Jaylen Waddle is the listed starting WR, with Troy Franklin next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Jaylen Waddle get more targets?
Jaylen Waddle's targets are trending up: 8.5 a game over his last two games against 6.7 for the season. His share of the offense is what his fantasy value rides on.
What is Jaylen Waddle's fantasy football upside?
Jaylen Waddle's upside: his ceiling this season is 21.8 PPR points (Week 2, WR9), his downfield role (38.8% air-yards share, 3rd of 142 WRs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Cardinals in Week 7 is a top-10 matchup for WRs.
What could hurt Jaylen Waddle's fantasy value?
Jaylen Waddle's risks: Troy Franklin is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt and the 49ers in Week 4 and the Seahawks in Week 6 are tough matchups. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Jaylen Waddle's remaining fantasy schedule?
Difficult: of his next seven games, 1 comes against a top-10 matchup for WRs and 5 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.