AFC West · 2026 Season
Denver Broncos
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Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−1.5%16thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate63%7thThrows inside the 20 — Sutton's 3 end-zone targets lead the team
- Neutral pace32.8s12th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations
- Plays per game54.030thOffensive plays a game — fewer snaps to go around, so shares matter more
- Team xFP / game82.622ndTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates
The Target Tree
All 93 Broncos pass attempts through Week 4
- Jaylen Waddle 21.5%
- Courtland Sutton 17.2%
- RJ Harvey 11.8%
- Pat Bryant 9.7%
- Evan Engram 8.6%
- Adkins/Badie/Franklin 14.0%
- Everyone else 10.8%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 6.5%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- J.K. Dobbins 42.4%
- RJ Harvey 29.3%
- Jonah Coleman 17.4%
- Other backs 10.9%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 13.0Dobbins weighted opps/game — RB37 in the NFL
- 7Dobbins high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 13.5Harvey weighted opps/game
- −5.1Dobbins wOpp/g vs. last season — a smaller role than last season
Why Dobbins's reception count stays capped: RJ Harvey owns 55% of the backfield's targets. Dobbins's 6-catch pace isn't a talent question — the passing-down role belongs to Harvey. Green flag for his rushing floor, hard ceiling on his PPR upside.
The Harvey math if Dobbins misses time: Harvey backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Dobbins absence projects Harvey to ~48% of weighted opportunities — about 18.8 a game, an RB2 by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 4.714 attLeft end
- 4.25 attLeft tackle
- 3.531 attMiddle
- 3.65 attRight tackle
- 4.37 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The left side is the run game's engine: 4.7 yards per carry off left end and 4.2 behind left tackle — 31% of all designed runs go that way. Interior volume (31 attempts) does the clock work at 3.5; the left edge does the damage. When the line's left side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Nix Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 4%13.5 YPADeep left
- 1%49.0 YPADeep middle
- 3%9.7 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 43%6.2 YPAShort left
- 10%3.3 YPAShort middle
- 39%5.4 YPAShort right
The short left is the efficiency engine (6.2 YPA). Nix keeps 91% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep left his most explosive zone (13.5 YPA on 4 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen WaddleWR1WR27 in target share, NFL | 0.64elite | 21.5%+9.9 vs W1 | 69%steady | 10 · 1 · 0 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 45.3% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 25% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 12.4-yard aDOT sits in the sweet spot — deep enough for ceiling, not so deep it gets volatile. He's −1.5 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| J.K. DobbinsRB1, 51% of RB touchesRB37 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 51% | 2.2%+5.9 vs W1 | 42%+6 vs W1 | 6 ▲0 · 3 · 3 — leads team | Flex | |
A shared backfield. 41% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. He's −6.0 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Courtland SuttonWR2WR44 in target share, NFL | 0.46strong — elite at 0.60 | 17.2%+2.7 vs W1 | 79%+11 vs W1 | 5 ▲1 · 1 · 3 | Starter | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 17.2% target share and 10.1 expected points a game, with a 25% first-read share; a 28.3% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. He's −4.7 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Pat BryantWR3WR77 in target share, NFL | 0.21below startable | 9.7%−15.5 vs W1 | 66%+11 vs W1 | 1 ▲0 · 0 · 1 | Volatile | |
The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 9% air-yards share and a 5.4 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage. He's scoring +2.7 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 5.4 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Evan EngramTE1TE33 in target share, NFL | 0.18below startable | 8.6%−12.0 vs W1 | 58%steady | 11 · 0 · 0 | Volatile | |
The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 6.6% air-yards share and a 4.5 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage. He's scoring +1.6 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 4 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Jonah ColemanRB3 · handcuff, 19% of RB touchesRB55 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 19% | 3.2%+9.7 vs W1 | 16%+34 vs W1 | 3 ▲0 · 3 · – | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 19% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Dobbins misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| RJ HarveyRB2 · handcuff, 21% of RB touchesRB34 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 21% | 11.8%+6.3 vs W1 | 28%−15 vs W1 | 2 ▲0 · – · 2 | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 21% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Dobbins misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Bo NixQB1QB15 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 100%steady | 3 ▲1 · 0 · 2 | Starter | |
A pocket passer's profile. 2 green-zone carries and a 1% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB15 in expected points). He's −2.2 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
J.K. Dobbins
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +6snap share pts since W1
- +5.9target share pts since W1
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Dobbins gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
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Common questions
Who leads the Denver Broncos in target share?
Jaylen Waddle leads the Denver Broncos with a 21.5% target share through Week 4, up 9.9 points since Week 1. Courtland Sutton is second at 17.2%.