Justin Herbert 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 28
- Height / weight
- 6'6", 236 lb
- Experience
- 7th season
- Drafted
- 2020 R1, #6
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 12.6
- Pos rank
- QB24
- Rostered
- 74%
Week 4 at Seahawks, Sun Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET 28th vs. QBs, tough
Justin Herbert Rest-of-Season Outlook
Dual-threat QB2 with streaming weeks
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished QB10 last season at 18.7 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's QB24 at 12.6 PPR points per game, against 18.7 over 16 games last season (QB10). He's running behind last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 10th of 41 in passing volume (32.0 attempts per game), 21st of 41 in efficiency (0.030 EPA per play) and 5th of 41 in rushing (31.1 rush yards per game). His points come from his rushing. Efficiency is the soft spot. Quentin Johnston and Tre' Harris are his top two targets.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with Trey Lance next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Herbert finished QB9 in 2025 with 286.9 fantasy points, yet the underlying profile screams untapped upside: a modest 0.03 EPA per play and 46.8% success rate, dragged down by 54 sacks and a 29.8% pressure rate behind a battered line. His arm wasn't the problem — a 76.4% on-target mark and 6.1 yards of completed air per completion held steady even as the offense leaned conservative, and he still chipped in 498 rushing yards across 83 carries.
The setup for 2026 is the real story. Mike McDaniel takes over the play-calling, tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt project to be healthy, and Ladd McConkey headlines a deeper pass-catching group. When Alt suited up last year, Herbert averaged 25.1 points per game — a rate that, sustained, makes him a weekly difference-maker. With an ADP around QB9 and projections near 302 fantasy points, he's a value-priced bet on positive regression.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 41 quarterbacks who played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Efficiency
Rushing
- Success rate
- 46.8%
- CPOE
- +1.6
- Sacks taken
- 54
- Pressure rate
- 29.8%
- Bad-throw rate
- 15.2%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 11.3%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- The scheduleNone of his next four opponents is a top-10 matchup for QBs.Wk 4 SEA, 28thWk 5 DEN, 20thWk 6 KC, 32ndWk 8 LAR, 21st
- Heavy passing volume32.0 attempts per game, 10th of 41 QBs in 2025.
- Major rushing31.1 rush yards per game, 5th of 41 QBs in 2025.
Risk
- Job securityTrey Lance is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- Tough matchupsThe Seahawks in Week 4 (28th) and the Chiefs in Week 6 (32nd) are among the stingiest defenses against QBs.
- Pressure and sacks54 sacks and a 29.8% pressure rate in 2025.
All Justin Herbert stats & analysis
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Justin Herbert Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Justin Herbert's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Justin Herbert projects as a dual-threat QB2 with streaming weeks for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in superflex and 2QB leagues, a streamer in 12-team 1QB leagues and waiver-wire material in 10-team 1QB leagues. His rushing (31.1 rush yards per game, 5th of 41 QBs in 2025) supports that. His efficiency (0.030 EPA per play, 21st of 41 QBs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Justin Herbert's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Justin Herbert is the QB24 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in QB2 territory, a streamer in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is Justin Herbert's projected role going forward?
Justin Herbert is the listed starting QB, with Trey Lance next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Justin Herbert get more pass attempts?
Justin Herbert's pass attempts are holding steady: 30.5 a game over his last two games against 29.3 for the season. Game script drives much of that, and trailing teams throw more.
What is Justin Herbert's fantasy football upside?
Justin Herbert's upside: his ceiling this season is 14.3 PPR points (Week 1, QB22) and his rushing (31.1 rush yards per game, 5th of 41 QBs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on.
What could hurt Justin Herbert's fantasy value?
Justin Herbert's risks: Trey Lance is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt, his efficiency (0.030 EPA per play, 21st of 41 QBs in 2025) limits his scoring and the Seahawks in Week 4 and the Chiefs in Week 6 are tough matchups. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Justin Herbert's remaining fantasy schedule?
Difficult: of his next seven games, 1 comes against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 3 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.