Kyler Murray 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 29
- Height / weight
- 5'10", 207 lb
- Experience
- 8th season
- Drafted
- 2019 R1, #1
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 6.0
- Pos rank
- QB36
- Rostered
- 57%
Week 4 vs. Dolphins, Sun Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET 6th vs. QBs, favorable
Kyler Murray Rest-of-Season Outlook
QB3 for deep leagues only
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished QB38 last season at 16.2 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 2 games he's QB36 at 6.0 PPR points per game, against 16.2 over 5 games last season (QB38). He's running behind last season's pace.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with Carson Wentz next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
The next favorable matchups are the Dolphins in Week 4 (6th against QBs) and the Colts in Week 7 (5th against QBs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
The 2025 tape is a small, noisy sample: just five games before a foot sprain ended his year, but the efficiency held up at 0.048 EPA per play, a 43.7% success rate, 68.3% completions and a 6-to-3 TD-to-INT split. Lean on the fuller 2024 line instead, where he finished QB11 with 297.2 fantasy points, 21 passing scores, a 49.9% success rate and a positive CPOE of 2.1. The constant across every season is his legs, and he added 173 rushing yards and a score in five tries last fall.
Minnesota is a genuine upgrade. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings and T.J. Hockenson give him the deepest weapon room of his career under a coordinator who develops quarterbacks. He profiles as a late-round QB1 or strong streamer, going around pick 110 as the QB17, and that rushing floor plus the projected 23 passing touchdowns make him a clear value with QB1 upside.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 41 quarterbacks who played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Fewer than 6 games in 2025, so not ranked.
Efficiency
Fewer than 6 games in 2025, so not ranked.
Rushing
Fewer than 6 games in 2025, so not ranked.
- Success rate
- 43.7%
- CPOE
- −0.5
- Sacks taken
- 16
- Pressure rate
- 16.5%
- Bad-throw rate
- 15.9%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 9.0%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft stretchThe Dolphins in Week 4 and the Colts in Week 7 are top-10 matchups for QBs.Wk 4 MIA, 6thWk 5 NO, 17thWk 7 IND, 5thWk 8 DET, 1st
Risk
- Job securityCarson Wentz is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- Pressure and sacks16 sacks and a 16.5% pressure rate in 2025.
All Kyler Murray stats & analysis
QBs like Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Kyler Murray's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Kyler Murray projects as a qB3 for deep leagues only for the rest of the 2026 season: a streamer in superflex and 2QB leagues and waiver-wire material in 1QB leagues. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Kyler Murray's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Kyler Murray is the QB36 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in QB3 territory, waiver-wire material in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is Kyler Murray's projected role going forward?
Kyler Murray is the listed starting QB, with Carson Wentz next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
What is Kyler Murray's fantasy football upside?
Kyler Murray's upside: his ceiling this season is 11.4 PPR points (Week 3, QB27) and the Dolphins in Week 4 and the Colts in Week 7 are top-10 matchups for QBs.
What could hurt Kyler Murray's fantasy value?
Kyler Murray's risks: Carson Wentz is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Kyler Murray's remaining fantasy schedule?
Favorable: of his next seven games, 4 come against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 1 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.