NFC North · 2026 Season
Minnesota Vikings
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Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected−6.0%25thRuns more than game situations call for — a cap on the pass-catchers' volume and a floor under Jones
- Red-zone pass rate43%29thRun-first inside the 20 — Jones's 1 green-zone carries eat the receivers' TDs
- Neutral pace34.5s28th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations — a slow offense shrinks the pie
- Plays per game54.729thOffensive plays a game — fewer snaps to go around, so shares matter more
- Team xFP / game64.532ndTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates — a thin pie, so only the top shares pay
The Target Tree
All 73 Vikings pass attempts through Week 4
- Justin Jefferson 23.3%
- Jordan Addison 21.9%
- T.J. Hockenson 17.8%
- Aaron Jones 9.6%
- Josh Oliver 6.8%
- Jennings/Dallas/Felton 9.6%
- Everyone else 2.7%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 8.2%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Aaron Jones 71.0%
- Jordan Mason 16.1%
- DeeJay Dallas 7.5%
- Other backs 5.4%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 22.0Jones weighted opps/game — RB16 in the NFL
- 8Jones high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 15.0Mason weighted opps/game
- +4.2Jones wOpp/g vs. last season — role grew, not just efficiency
Why Jones's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 67% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 28-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 47% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Mason math if Jones misses time: Mason backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Jones absence projects Mason to ~76% of weighted opportunities — about 31.7 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — and why he's a STASH, not a cut.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 5.311 attLeft end
- 3.38 attLeft tackle
- 2.843 attMiddle
- 5.98 attRight tackle
- 4.85 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The right side is the run game's engine: 5.9 yards per carry behind right tackle and 4.8 off right end — 17% of all designed runs go that way, and two of Jones's three longest runs came off the right side. Interior volume (43 attempts) does the clock work at 2.8; the right edge does the damage. When the line's right side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Wentz Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 11%17.5 YPADeep left
- 3%11.0 YPADeep middle
- 1%0.0 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 25%3.3 YPAShort left · Addison
- 23%6.9 YPAShort middle
- 37%4.6 YPAShort right
The deep left is the efficiency engine (17.5 YPA). Wentz keeps 85% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep left his most explosive zone (17.5 YPA on 8 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron JonesRB1, 70% of RB touchesRB16 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 70% | 9.6%+16.5 vs W1 | 68%+34 vs W1 | 44 · 0 · 0 — leads team | Set & forget | |
The locked-in workhorse. A 50% share of the backs' red-zone work is the RB stat that tracks fantasy points best, and 1 green-zone carry put him at the goal line. Production is running −0.6 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Justin JeffersonWR1WR19 in target share, NFL | 0.58strong — elite at 0.60 | 23.3%−30.6 vs W1 | 68%−80 vs W1 | 32 · 1 · 0 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 32.3% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 34.8% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 11.1-yard aDOT sits in the sweet spot — deep enough for ceiling, not so deep it gets volatile. He's scoring +4.2 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 10.7 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Jordan AddisonWR2WR25 in target share, NFL | 0.59strong — elite at 0.60 | 21.9%+22.7 vs W1 | 90%+15 vs W1 | 11 · 0 · 0 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 37.8% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 23.9% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 13.8-yard aDOT keeps his ceiling high and his floor jumpy. Production is running −0.9 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| T.J. HockensonTE1TE10 in target share, NFL | 0.38strong for TE | 17.8%−7.0 vs W1 | 73%+19 vs W1 | 22 · 0 · 0 | Starter | |
A starter's share without the alpha tag. A 17.8% target share and 7.3 expected points a game, with a 21.7% first-read share; a 15.9% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. Production is running +0.2 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Jordan MasonRB2 · handcuff, 19% of RB touchesRB31 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 19% | 0.0% | 16% | 44 · – · – | Stash | |
Contingent value, quantified. The 19% touch share is standalone-flex-in-a-pinch at best; the real number is what it becomes if Jones misses time — see The Backfield Split above. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Carson WentzQB1QB33 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 60%+17 vs W1 | 00 · 0 · – | Volatile | |
A pocket passer's profile. 0 green-zone carries and a 4.3% scramble rate: his points have to come through the air, so his weekly range follows the pass volume (QB33 in expected points). He's scoring +3.0 points a game over expected — some of that is efficiency that regresses, but the 9.8 xFP floor holds. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Sell high
T.J. Hockenson
Season totals still read like a starter, but the share is drifting the wrong way three straight weeks. Name value currently exceeds trajectory.
- −7.0target share pts since W1
- 13.8%W3 share — season low
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Minnesota's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Minnesota Vikings in target share?
Justin Jefferson leads the Minnesota Vikings with a 23.3% target share through Week 4, down 30.6 points since Week 1. Jordan Addison is second at 21.9%.