Matthew Stafford 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 38
- Height / weight
- 6'3", 214 lb
- Experience
- 18th season
- Drafted
- 2009 R1, #1
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 18.7
- Pos rank
- QB13
- Rostered
- 89%
Week 4 at Eagles, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 7th vs. QBs, favorable
Matthew Stafford Rest-of-Season Outlook
Volume-driven QB2 with streaming weeks
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished QB3 last season at 21.1 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's QB13 at 18.7 PPR points per game, against 21.1 over 17 games last season (QB3). He's running behind last season's pace.
Last season he ranked 4th of 41 in passing volume (35.1 attempts per game), 6th of 41 in efficiency (0.17 EPA per play) and 41st of 41 in rushing (0.1 rush yards per game). His points come from his passing volume. Rushing is the soft spot. Davante Adams and Tyler Higbee are his top two targets.
The main risk is the job itself. He's the listed starter with Stetson Bennett IV next on the depth chart, and a benching or an injury would take his value to zero overnight.
The next favorable matchups are the Eagles in Week 4 (7th against QBs) and the Bills in Week 5 (10th against QBs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 17, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Stafford authored a career year in 2025, finishing as our QB1 on 350.4 fantasy points. Across a full 17 games he threw for 4,707 yards and a monster 46 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions, posting a 0.168 EPA per play and a 50.8 percent success rate. The volume was elite (597 attempts, 113 red-zone attempts, 14.5 percent deep-attempt rate), and his 4 completions of 50-plus yards underscore a downfield game that hummed.
The leap from 2024 is stark: he jumped from 20 touchdowns and 214.6 points (QB13) to more than double the scoring, driven by efficiency (0.055 to 0.168 EPA) and touchdown variance breaking his way. The risk is age 37, a No. 1 overall pedigree now 17 years deep, and the regression that 46 scores invites. He offers no rushing floor (1 rush yard), so a TD dip would sting. Still, as a stable, high-volume pocket passer in a loaded offense, Stafford is a locked-in weekly starter and low-end QB1.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 41 quarterbacks who played at least six games. Each bar is one quarterback, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Passing volume
Efficiency
Rushing
- Success rate
- 50.8%
- CPOE
- +1.6
- Sacks taken
- 23
- Pressure rate
- 18.5%
- Bad-throw rate
- 18.1%
- Deep-attempt rate
- 14.5%
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft stretchThe Eagles in Week 4 and the Bills in Week 5 are top-10 matchups for QBs.Wk 4 PHI, 7thWk 5 BUF, 10thWk 6 ARI, 4thWk 7 LV, 18th
- Heavy passing volume35.1 attempts per game, 4th of 41 QBs in 2025.
- Strong efficiency0.17 EPA per play, 6th of 41 QBs in 2025.
Risk
- Job securityStetson Bennett IV is next on the depth chart; a benching or injury hands him the job.
- Limited rushing0.1 rush yards per game, 41st of 41 QBs in 2025.
- Pressure and sacks23 sacks and a 18.5% pressure rate in 2025.
All Matthew Stafford stats & analysis
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Matthew Stafford Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Matthew Stafford's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Matthew Stafford projects as a volume-driven QB2 with streaming weeks for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in superflex and 2QB leagues and a streamer in 1QB leagues. His passing volume (35.1 attempts per game, 4th of 41 QBs in 2025) supports that. His rushing (0.1 rush yards per game, 41st of 41 QBs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Matthew Stafford's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Matthew Stafford is the QB13 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in QB2 territory, a streamer in 12-team 1QB leagues.
What is Matthew Stafford's projected role going forward?
Matthew Stafford is the listed starting QB, with Stetson Bennett IV next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Matthew Stafford get more pass attempts?
Matthew Stafford's pass attempts are trending up: 43.0 a game over his last two games against 37.0 for the season. Game script drives much of that, and trailing teams throw more.
What is Matthew Stafford's fantasy football upside?
Matthew Stafford's upside: his ceiling this season is 28.0 PPR points (Week 2, QB6), his passing volume (35.1 attempts per game, 4th of 41 QBs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Eagles in Week 4 and the Bills in Week 5 are top-10 matchups for QBs.
What could hurt Matthew Stafford's fantasy value?
Matthew Stafford's risks: Stetson Bennett IV is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt and his rushing (0.1 rush yards per game, 41st of 41 QBs in 2025) limits his scoring. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Matthew Stafford's remaining fantasy schedule?
Favorable: of his next seven games, 5 come against a top-10 matchup for QBs and 0 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.