Michael Wilson 2026 fantasy outlook and rest-of-season projection
- Age
- 26
- Height / weight
- 6'2", 213 lb
- Experience
- 4th season
- Drafted
- 2023 R3, #94
2026 Season
- PPR PPG
- 13.4
- Pos rank
- WR22
- Rostered
- 91%
Week 4 at Giants, Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET 8th vs. WRs, favorable
Michael Wilson Rest-of-Season Outlook
Downfield WR2 every week
Preseason Projection vs. Reality
He finished WR10 last season at 13.0 points per game.
Our Take After Week 4
Through 3 games he's WR22 at 13.4 PPR points per game, against 13.0 over 17 games last season (WR10). The role is producing the same fantasy output two years running.
Last season he ranked 20th of 142 in target volume (20.4% target share), 14th of 142 in downfield role (32.2% air-yards share) and 49th of 142 in efficiency (1.68 yards per route run). His points come from his downfield role. Efficiency is the soft spot. Jacoby Brissett is his quarterback.
The job is secure: he's the listed starter and one of the best at his position. The main risk is health, and Simi Fehoko is next on the depth chart if he misses time.
The next favorable matchups are the Giants in Week 4 (8th against WRs) and the Lions in Week 5 (2nd against WRs).
Read our preseason outlook (June 2026)
Published June 16, 2026. Kept for reference; the take above replaces it.
Wilson's 2025 was a genuine ascension on paper: 17 games, 126 targets, a 20.4% target share and a 0.532 WOPR that vaulted him to WR17 with 142.6 fantasy points. The efficiency backs it up, with 1,006 yards, a 1.68 yards-per-route-run mark, 0.212 EPA per play and a 50.8% success rate. He commanded volume too, drawing a 32.2% air-yards share and 16 red-zone looks while converting seven scores and dropping just one of 79 catchable balls.
The catch is context. Much of that production stacked up when Arizona's top option was sidelined, and across 2023-2024 his target shares sat at 10.7% and 13.6% with far thinner output. A healthy pecking order, plus McBride and a new ground-game investment, caps his ceiling. The 11.92 air yards per target and downfield role keep him relevant, but treat the WR17 finish as a soft projection, not a floor, and draft accordingly.
What Drives His Outlook
His 2025 rank among the 142 receivers who played at least six games. Each bar is one receiver, best on the left; his is highlighted.
Target volume
Downfield role
Efficiency
- Average depth of target
- 11.9
- Drop rate
- 0.8%
- Red-zone targets
- 16
- Route participation
- 84.7%
- YAC per reception
- 3.5
What Could Change His Value
Upside
- A soft stretchThe Giants in Week 4 and the Lions in Week 5 are top-10 matchups for WRs.Wk 4 NYG, 8thWk 5 DET, 2ndWk 6 LAR, 19thWk 7 DEN, 27th
- Heavy target volume20.4% target share, 20th of 142 WRs in 2025.
- Downfield role32.2% air-yards share, 14th of 142 WRs in 2025.
Risk
- HealthHis role is secure; if he misses time, Simi Fehoko is next on the depth chart.
- A tough matchupThe Broncos in Week 7 (27th) is among the stingiest defenses against WRs.
All Michael Wilson stats & analysis
WRs like Michael Wilson
WR19DK MetcalfSteelers43.3 PTS
WR20Drake LondonFalcons42.8 PTS
WR21Zay FlowersRavens41.4 PTS
WR22You are hereMichael WilsonCardinals40.3 PTS
WR23Deebo Samuel49ers39.9 PTS
WR24Devaughn VeleSaints38.2 PTS
WR25Rashee RiceChiefs38.0 PTS
Michael Wilson Fantasy Outlook FAQ
What is Michael Wilson's fantasy outlook for the rest of the 2026 season?
Michael Wilson projects as a downfield WR2 every week for the rest of the 2026 season: a weekly starter in 12-team PPR, 10-team PPR and half-PPR leagues. His downfield role (32.2% air-yards share, 14th of 142 WRs in 2025) supports that. His efficiency (1.68 yards per route run, 49th of 142 WRs in 2025) holds him back. See his live rank in Redraft Command.
What is Michael Wilson's rest-of-season fantasy ranking?
Michael Wilson is the WR22 in PPR points per game through Week 4. That puts him in WR2 territory, a weekly starter in 10-team PPR leagues.
What is Michael Wilson's projected role going forward?
Michael Wilson is the listed starting WR, with Simi Fehoko next on the depth chart. Nothing on the chart threatens the job, so the role is his to lose on performance.
Will Michael Wilson get more targets?
Michael Wilson's targets are trending up: 12.0 a game over his last two games against 10.3 for the season. His share of the offense is what his fantasy value rides on.
What is Michael Wilson's fantasy football upside?
Michael Wilson's upside: his ceiling this season is 25.9 PPR points (Week 3, WR4), his downfield role (32.2% air-yards share, 14th of 142 WRs in 2025) gives him a weekly floor to build on and the Giants in Week 4 and the Lions in Week 5 are top-10 matchups for WRs.
What could hurt Michael Wilson's fantasy value?
Michael Wilson's risks: Simi Fehoko is next on the depth chart if he is benched or hurt, his efficiency (1.68 yards per route run, 49th of 142 WRs in 2025) limits his scoring and the Broncos in Week 7 is a tough matchup. See his injury status and history.
How difficult is Michael Wilson's remaining fantasy schedule?
About average: of his next seven games, 2 come against a top-10 matchup for WRs and 2 against one of the stingiest defenses, by PPR points allowed to the position.