NFC West · 2026 Season
Arizona Cardinals
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Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals Usage & Opportunity Report 2026
Updated through Week 4 · refreshed every Tuesday
Fantasy production follows opportunity, not the other way around — so this report tracks who's on the field and who the ball is going to, before the box score catches up. The essentials: target share (share of team pass attempts), snap share, and red-zone touches. The premium layer, in each player's expandable profile: first-read share (how often the play is designed for him), air-yards share (30%+ is the alpha-receiver threshold), and expected fantasy points (xFP) vs. fantasy points over expected (FPOE) — xFP is stable, repeatable volume; FPOE is efficiency that regresses. Route share (the % of dropbacks a player runs a route on — the stat that matters most for tight ends), targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR — the best receiver efficiency stat there is) join the profiles when the league's route data is published. Since 2017, receivers at a 20%+ target share average 15.3 fantasy points per game; the 10–20% group averages 9.8. That cliff is why this table exists.
- Pass rate over expected+0.5%11thThrows about as much as situations call for — the target tree, not the play-calling, decides who eats
- Red-zone pass rate58%13thBalanced inside the 20 — Love leads the team with 12 red-zone touches
- Neutral pace33.0s16th fastestSeconds per play in neutral situations
- Plays per game65.36thOffensive plays a game — extra volume lifts every starter's floor
- Team xFP / game96.08thTotal expected fantasy points this offense creates — a rising tide for every starter
The Target Tree
All 116 Cardinals pass attempts through Week 4
- Trey McBride 29.3%
- Michael Wilson 26.7%
- Kendrick Bourne 12.1%
- Jeremiyah Love 10.3%
- Marvin Harrison 7.8%
- Allgeier/Higgins/Brooks 10.3%
- Everyone else 0.9%
- No target (throwaways, spikes, batted) 2.6%
The Backfield Split
Who owns which situations — the RB stat that actually predicts the box score.
- Jeremiyah Love 60.7%
- Tyler Allgeier 37.4%
- Zonovan Knight 1.9%
Share of the backs' carries + targets in each situation. Snap-by-snap splits need the league's participation data, which is published after the season.
- 21.7Love weighted opps/game — RB18 in the NFL
- 16Love high-value touches (in-10 carries + targets)
- 13.3Allgeier weighted opps/game
Why Love's floor holds in PPR: He keeps 50% of the backs' third-down work as well as the early downs, so his catches don't depend on game script — a 57-catch pace. Trailing by 7+, he still gets 75% of the backs' work — no one takes the hurry-up snaps from him.
The Allgeier math if Love misses time: Allgeier backs up the early-down and red-zone roles (the valuable ones). A Love absence projects Allgeier to ~94% of weighted opportunities — about 33.8 a game, a top-12 weekly RB by volume — worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
Run Direction — carries & yards per carry by gap
- 4.69 attLeft end
- 1.99 attLeft tackle
- 3.243 attMiddle
- 4.06 attRight tackle
- 7.56 attRight end
Designed runs only; "Middle" includes runs behind either guard.
The right side is the run game's engine: 7.5 yards per carry off right end and 4.0 behind right tackle — 16% of all designed runs go that way, and all three of Love's three longest runs came off the right side. Interior volume (43 attempts) does the clock work at 3.2; the right edge does the damage. When the line's right side sits out practice, that's a usage note, not just an injury note.
Where Brissett Attacks
Share of pass attempts & yards per attempt by field zone — through Week 4
- 5%5.5 YPADeep left
- 0%no attemptsDeep middle
- 1%27.0 YPADeep right
Line of scrimmage · deep = 20+ air yards
- 28%5.4 YPAShort left
- 17%5.9 YPAShort middle · McBride
- 48%5.3 YPAShort right · Wilson
The short middle is the efficiency engine (5.9 YPA) — and it's McBride's territory. Brissett keeps 94% of his throws under 20 air yards, with the deep left his most explosive zone (5.5 YPA on 6 attempts). Gold = highest-YPA high-volume zone.
| Profile | Player | Opportunity (WOPR) | Target share | Snap share | RZ touches | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBrideTE1TE1 in target share, NFL | 0.62elite for TE | 29.3%−13.5 vs W1 | 86%+11 vs W1 | 84 · 2 · 2 | Set & forget | |
Volume you can set in the lineup. A 29.3% target share and 20.2 expected points a game, with a 33.7% first-read share; a 25.6% air-yards share decides how much of that turns into yards. Production is running −0.5 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL TEs. | ||||||
| Michael WilsonWR1WR6 in target share, NFL | 0.69elite | 26.7%+14.4 vs W1 | 91%+8 vs W1 | 5 ▲0 · 0 · 5 | Set & forget | |
The alpha profile, fully formed. A 41.5% air-yards share clears the 30% alpha threshold, a 34.9% first-read share says the offense is designed through him, and a 9.5-yard aDOT sits in the sweet spot — deep enough for ceiling, not so deep it gets volatile. He's −4.2 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Jeremiyah LoveRB1, 60% of RB touchesRB18 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 60% | 10.3%steady | 51%+21 vs W1 | 12 ▲4 · 2 · 6 — leads team | Starter | |
A shared backfield. 61% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. Production is running −0.1 against expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Tyler AllgeierRB2, 38% of RB touchesRB35 in weighted opps/game, NFL | —touch share 38% | 6.9%+2.4 vs W1 | 50%−23 vs W1 | 64 · 0 · 2 | Volatile | |
A shared backfield. 37% of the weighted opportunities means another back takes a real cut every week, so his floor rises and falls with game script. He's −1.8 a game against expected: the volume is there and the box score hasn't caught up — a buy signal, not a warning. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL RBs. | ||||||
| Kendrick BourneWR2WR65 in target share, NFL | 0.24below startable | 12.1%−15.7 vs W1 | 60%−12 vs W1 | 21 · 0 · 1 | Volatile | |
The ceiling problem in two numbers: a 7.9% air-yards share and a 4 aDOT. His targets travel nowhere, so even a healthy target share converts to modest yardage — and the share itself is the one drifting down. Production is running +0.9 over expected, so this is volume, not a hot streak. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL WRs. | ||||||
| Jacoby BrissettQB1QB8 in xFP/game, NFL | —every dropback | —the passer | 100%steady | 3 ▲0 · 1 · 2 | Set & forget | |
The goal-line QB. 3 green-zone carries in 3 games and a 4.7% designed-run rate — with a 56% pass rate inside the 10, the most valuable real estate in fantasy goes to his legs as often as his arm. His xFP alone (QB8 league-wide) justifies the price before any efficiency. Bars show percentile vs. all NFL QBs. | ||||||
How to read this table
- Set & forget 20%+ target share or locked bell-cow role — start everywhere
- Starter 17–19% target share or a lead back's full workload — weekly lineup play
- Flex 15–16% share or a committee lead — matchup-dependent
- Volatile under 15% — deep leagues only
- Stash the role behind the role
- WOPR: 1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share
- + button: opens the full advanced profile — first-read share, air-yards share, xFP/FPOE — with percentile bars vs. the league
Buy low
Jeremiyah Love
The role is arriving before the box score does. Trade for him this week — not after the two-touchdown game makes it obvious to your league.
- +21snap share pts since W1
- 14.3xFP per game
Sell high
Kendrick Bourne
Season totals still read like a starter, but the share is drifting the wrong way three straight weeks. Name value currently exceeds trajectory.
- −15.7target share pts since W1
- 5.9%W3 share — season low
Usage trends are one of the core inputs behind our player pricing — Redraft Command re-runs every player's value as these shares move, so a riser like Love gets repriced before your leaguemates notice.
Data: nflverse play-by-play · nflverse snap counts (PFR) · FTN Data charting via nflverse (first-read share) · ffopportunity expected points (xFP). Regular season, through Week 4.
Explore StatChasers
- Fantasy Football ToolsThe #1 ranked fantasy football toolset.Open
- Advanced Player StatsDeeper numbers on every player in the league.Open
- Strength of ScheduleMatchup difficulty by fantasy position, including the playoff weeks.Open
- Fantasy Points AllowedHow Arizona's defense performs against QB, RB, WR and TE.Open
Common questions
Who leads the Arizona Cardinals in target share?
Trey McBride leads the Arizona Cardinals with a 29.3% target share through Week 4, down 13.5 points since Week 1. Michael Wilson is second at 26.7%.