Start Derrick Henry. Henry is projected for 14.2 PPR points vs 2.0 for A.J. Brown, and faces the 1st-toughest defense against RBs this week.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Derrick Henry RB · BAL | A.J. Brown WR · NE | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 14.2 | 2.0 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 11.9 | 2.0 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 16.9 | 2.0 |
| StatChasers projection | 13.9 (RB18) | — |
| Opponent | vs JAX | Bye |
| Opponent vs. position | 1st-toughest (16.8 pts/g allowed) | — |
| Recent usage | 65% carry share (last 3) | 22% target share (last 3) |
| Position | RB | WR |
| Our call | START · RB2 | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Derrick Henry. Henry projects for 14.2 PPR points vs JAX, against 2.0 for A.J. Brown on a bye: a 12.2-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Derrick Henry is projected to score more: 14.2 PPR points to 2.0 for A.J. Brown.
The sources range from 11.9 to 16.9 for Henry and from 2.0 to 2.0 for Brown. Even Brown's highest projection is below Henry's lowest.
Derrick Henry is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Henry at 11.9 PPR points, against 2.0 for A.J. Brown.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Derrick Henry has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Henry at 16.9 PPR points, against 2.0 for A.J. Brown.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Derrick Henry plays JAX and A.J. Brown is on a bye in Week 9.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Derrick Henry has drawn 65% of his team's carries, and A.J. Brown 22% of his team's targets.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is A.J. Brown.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Derrick Henry has no injury designation, and A.J. Brown is on a bye.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Derrick Henry is projected by 6 of them and A.J. Brown by 1.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.