Start Justin Jefferson. Jefferson is projected for 16.9 PPR points vs 15.0 for A.J. Brown, and faces the 3rd-softest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Oct 30, 7:29 AM ET
| Justin Jefferson WR · MIN | A.J. Brown WR · NE | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 8, avg of sources) | 16.9 | 15.0 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 13.9 | 13.4 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 18.4 | 16.6 |
| StatChasers projection | 17.5 (WR8) | 14.5 (WR14) |
| Opponent | vs DET | vs MIA |
| Opponent vs. position | 3rd-softest (39.2 pts/g allowed) | 3rd-toughest (23.8 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 21% target share (last 3) | 22% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | WR |
| Our call | START · Strong WR1 | START · WR2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Justin Jefferson. Jefferson projects for 16.9 PPR points vs DET, against 15.0 for A.J. Brown vs MIA: a 1.9-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Justin Jefferson is projected to score more: 16.9 PPR points to 15.0 for A.J. Brown.
The sources range from 13.9 to 18.4 for Jefferson and from 13.4 to 16.6 for Brown. The ranges overlap, so Brown outscoring Jefferson is a realistic result.
Justin Jefferson is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Jefferson at 13.9 PPR points, against 13.4 for A.J. Brown.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Justin Jefferson has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Jefferson at 18.4 PPR points, against 16.6 for A.J. Brown.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Justin Jefferson plays DET and A.J. Brown plays MIA in Week 8.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Jefferson faces the 3rd-softest defense against WRs and Brown faces the 3rd-toughest defense against WRs, so Justin Jefferson has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Justin Jefferson has drawn 21% of his team's targets, and A.J. Brown 22% of his team's targets.
A.J. Brown has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is A.J. Brown.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Justin Jefferson nor A.J. Brown has an injury designation for Week 8.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Justin Jefferson is projected by 5 of them and A.J. Brown by 5.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.