Start DK Metcalf. Metcalf is projected for 13.5 PPR points vs 12.6 for Luther Burden III, and faces the 16th-softest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Oct 24, 4:47 PM ET
| DK Metcalf WR · PIT | Luther Burden III WR · CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 7, avg of sources) | 13.5 | 12.6 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 12.4 | 12.6 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 14.8 | 12.7 |
| StatChasers projection | — | — |
| Opponent | vs NO | vs NE |
| Opponent vs. position | 16th-softest (31.8 pts/g allowed) | 16th-toughest (31.7 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 25% target share (last 3) | 19% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | WR |
| Our call | START · WR2 | START · WR2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start DK Metcalf. Metcalf projects for 13.5 PPR points vs NO, against 12.6 for Luther Burden III vs NE: a 0.9-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
DK Metcalf is projected to score more: 13.5 PPR points to 12.6 for Luther Burden III.
The sources range from 12.4 to 14.8 for Metcalf and from 12.6 to 12.7 for Burden III. The ranges overlap, so Burden III outscoring Metcalf is a realistic result.
Luther Burden III is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Burden III at 12.6 PPR points, against 12.4 for DK Metcalf.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
DK Metcalf has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Metcalf at 14.8 PPR points, against 12.7 for Luther Burden III.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
DK Metcalf plays NO and Luther Burden III plays NE in Week 7.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Metcalf faces the 16th-softest defense against WRs and Burden III faces the 16th-toughest defense against WRs, so DK Metcalf has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games DK Metcalf has drawn 25% of his team's targets, and Luther Burden III 19% of his team's targets.
DK Metcalf has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is DK Metcalf.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither DK Metcalf nor Luther Burden III has an injury designation for Week 7.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). DK Metcalf is projected by 4 of them and Luther Burden III by 4.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.