Start Josh Downs. Downs is projected for 8.9 PPR points vs 7.5 for Efton Chism III, and faces the 7th-softest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Josh Downs WR · IND | Efton Chism III WR · NE | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 8.9 | 7.5 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 7.2 | 6.2 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 11.0 | 9.3 |
| StatChasers projection | 9.1 (WR48) | 6.2 (WR61) |
| Opponent | vs DAL | vs GB |
| Opponent vs. position | 7th-softest (35.6 pts/g allowed) | 9th-softest (34.8 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 19% target share (last 3) | 9% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | WR |
| Our call | SIT · Bench | SIT · Bench |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Josh Downs. Downs projects for 8.9 PPR points vs DAL, against 7.5 for Efton Chism III vs GB: a 1.4-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Josh Downs is projected to score more: 8.9 PPR points to 7.5 for Efton Chism III.
The sources range from 7.2 to 11.0 for Downs and from 6.2 to 9.3 for Chism III. The ranges overlap, so Chism III outscoring Downs is a realistic result.
Josh Downs is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Downs at 7.2 PPR points, against 6.2 for Efton Chism III.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Josh Downs has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Downs at 11.0 PPR points, against 9.3 for Efton Chism III.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Josh Downs plays DAL and Efton Chism III plays GB in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Downs faces the 7th-softest defense against WRs and Chism III faces the 9th-softest defense against WRs, so Josh Downs has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Josh Downs has drawn 19% of his team's targets, and Efton Chism III 9% of his team's targets.
Josh Downs has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Josh Downs.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Josh Downs nor Efton Chism III has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Josh Downs is projected by 6 of them and Efton Chism III by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.