Start Josh Downs. Downs is projected for 9.5 PPR points vs 9.2 for Keenan Allen, and faces the 5th-toughest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Oct 24, 4:47 PM ET
| Josh Downs WR · IND | Keenan Allen WR · IND | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 7, avg of sources) | 9.5 | 9.2 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 8.4 | 8.7 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 10.6 | 9.8 |
| StatChasers projection | — | — |
| Opponent | vs MIN | vs MIN |
| Opponent vs. position | 5th-toughest (27.1 pts/g allowed) | 5th-toughest (27.1 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 16% target share (last 3) | 25% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | WR |
| Our call | FLEX · Flex | FLEX · Flex |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Josh Downs. Downs projects for 9.5 PPR points vs MIN, against 9.2 for Keenan Allen vs MIN: a 0.3-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Josh Downs is projected to score more: 9.5 PPR points to 9.2 for Keenan Allen.
The sources range from 8.4 to 10.6 for Downs and from 8.7 to 9.8 for Allen. The ranges overlap, so Allen outscoring Downs is a realistic result.
Keenan Allen is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Allen at 8.7 PPR points, against 8.4 for Josh Downs.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Josh Downs has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Downs at 10.6 PPR points, against 9.8 for Keenan Allen.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Josh Downs plays MIN and Keenan Allen plays MIN in Week 7.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Downs faces the 5th-toughest defense against WRs and Allen faces the 5th-toughest defense against WRs, so Josh Downs has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Josh Downs has drawn 16% of his team's targets, and Keenan Allen 25% of his team's targets.
Keenan Allen has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Keenan Allen.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Josh Downs nor Keenan Allen has an injury designation for Week 7.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Josh Downs is projected by 4 of them and Keenan Allen by 4.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.