Start Justin Jefferson. Jefferson is projected for 17.1 PPR points vs 13.7 for Stefon Diggs, and faces the 5th-softest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Justin Jefferson WR · MIN | Stefon Diggs WR · WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 17.1 | 13.7 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 14.4 | 11.5 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 19.1 | 16.0 |
| StatChasers projection | 18.3 (WR6) | 11.5 (WR25) |
| Opponent | vs BUF | vs LAR |
| Opponent vs. position | 5th-softest (37.1 pts/g allowed) | 5th-toughest (26.8 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 28% target share (last 3) | 23% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | WR |
| Our call | START · Strong WR1 | START · WR3 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Justin Jefferson. Jefferson projects for 17.1 PPR points vs BUF, against 13.7 for Stefon Diggs vs LAR: a 3.4-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Justin Jefferson is projected to score more: 17.1 PPR points to 13.7 for Stefon Diggs.
The sources range from 14.4 to 19.1 for Jefferson and from 11.5 to 16.0 for Diggs. The ranges overlap, so Diggs outscoring Jefferson is a realistic result.
Justin Jefferson is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has Jefferson at 14.4 PPR points, against 11.5 for Stefon Diggs.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Justin Jefferson has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Jefferson at 19.1 PPR points, against 16.0 for Stefon Diggs.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Justin Jefferson plays BUF and Stefon Diggs plays LAR in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Jefferson faces the 5th-softest defense against WRs and Diggs faces the 5th-toughest defense against WRs, so Justin Jefferson has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Justin Jefferson has drawn 28% of his team's targets, and Stefon Diggs 23% of his team's targets.
Justin Jefferson has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Justin Jefferson.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Justin Jefferson nor Stefon Diggs has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Justin Jefferson is projected by 6 of them and Stefon Diggs by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.