Start Nico Collins. Collins is projected for 16.1 PPR points vs 14.9 for Luther Burden III, and faces the 16th-toughest defense against WRs this week.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Nico Collins WR · HOU | Luther Burden III WR · CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 16.1 | 14.9 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 13.9 | 13.9 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 18.6 | 15.8 |
| StatChasers projection | 15.8 (WR12) | 15.3 (WR15) |
| Opponent | vs LAC | vs TB |
| Opponent vs. position | 16th-toughest (30.3 pts/g allowed) | 8th-toughest (28.0 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 18% target share (last 3) | 22% target share (last 3) |
| Position | WR | WR |
| Our call | START · Strong WR1 | START · WR2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
Start Nico Collins. Collins projects for 16.1 PPR points vs LAC, against 14.9 for Luther Burden III vs TB: a 1.2-point edge.
The projection is the average of every source that carries each player this week, and a player listed Out or Doubtful is never the start.
Nico Collins is projected to score more: 16.1 PPR points to 14.9 for Luther Burden III.
The sources range from 13.9 to 18.6 for Collins and from 13.9 to 15.8 for Burden III. The ranges overlap, so Burden III outscoring Collins is a realistic result.
They share the same floor, 13.9 PPR points.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Nico Collins has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has Collins at 18.6 PPR points, against 15.8 for Luther Burden III.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Nico Collins plays LAC and Luther Burden III plays TB in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, Collins faces the 16th-toughest defense against WRs and Burden III faces the 8th-toughest defense against WRs, so Nico Collins has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Nico Collins has drawn 18% of his team's targets, and Luther Burden III 22% of his team's targets.
Luther Burden III has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Luther Burden III.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Nico Collins nor Luther Burden III has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Nico Collins is projected by 6 of them and Luther Burden III by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.