Too close to call: Trey McBride (15.1) and Luther Burden III (14.9) project within 0.2 PPR points of each other in Week 9, and Trey McBride faces the 5th-toughest defense against TEs.
Updated Nov 7, 4:39 PM ET
| Trey McBride TE · ARI | Luther Burden III WR · CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Projection (Week 9, avg of sources) | 15.1 | 14.9 |
| Floor (lowest source) | 14.2 | 13.9 |
| Ceiling (highest source) | 16.2 | 15.8 |
| StatChasers projection | 16.2 (TE3) | 15.3 (WR15) |
| Opponent | vs SEA | vs TB |
| Opponent vs. position | 5th-toughest (10.2 pts/g allowed) | 8th-toughest (28.0 pts/g allowed) |
| Recent usage | 25% target share (last 3) | 22% target share (last 3) |
| Position | TE | WR |
| Our call | START · Strong TE1 | START · WR2 |
Settle every start/sit call with projections, matchup, recent usage and floor-versus-ceiling for your exact scoring settings.
It is a coin flip. Trey McBride projects for 15.1 PPR points and Luther Burden III for 14.9, within 0.2 of each other.
Break the tie with the floor if you are favored this week, and with the ceiling if you need a big game to win.
They are projected almost level: 15.1 PPR points for Trey McBride and 14.9 for Luther Burden III.
The sources range from 14.2 to 16.2 for McBride and from 13.9 to 15.8 for Burden III. Either result is well inside both ranges.
Trey McBride is the safer start: even the most cautious projection source has McBride at 14.2 PPR points, against 13.9 for Luther Burden III.
Start the higher floor when you are favored and only need to avoid a dud.
Trey McBride has the higher ceiling: the most optimistic projection source has McBride at 16.2 PPR points, against 15.8 for Luther Burden III.
Start the higher ceiling when you are the underdog and need points more than safety.
Trey McBride plays SEA and Luther Burden III plays TB in Week 9.
By fantasy points allowed to each position, McBride faces the 5th-toughest defense against TEs and Burden III faces the 8th-toughest defense against WRs, so Luther Burden III has the softer matchup.
Each projection already accounts for the opponent, so a soft matchup is a tiebreaker, not a reason to bench the higher projection.
Over his recent games Trey McBride has drawn 25% of his team's targets, and Luther Burden III 22% of his team's targets.
Trey McBride has the bigger role, and volume is the steadiest thing a projection rests on.
These numbers are in PPR. Full PPR adds a point per catch, so it helps whichever player sees more targets, which here is Trey McBride.
Switch between PPR, Half PPR and Standard on the board above to rescore both players from the same sources.
Neither Trey McBride nor Luther Burden III has an injury designation for Week 9.
Designations change through the week, so check again before kickoff; this page updates with each refresh.
Each figure is the average of the projection sources that carry the player this week: StatChasers, Sleeper, ESPN, numberFire, FFToday and the betting markets (sportsbook player props). Trey McBride is projected by 5 of them and Luther Burden III by 6.
A source with no number for a player is left out of the average rather than counted as a zero.