Final2025 Week 16

Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos, Week 16 2025

Jacksonville Jaguars

AwayWon

34

Denver Broncos

Home

20

Scoring by quarter
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Jaguars71014334
Broncos0107320

JAX 34DEN 20 Final

  • Passing leader

    Bo Nix

    DEN · QB

    16.2PPR pts

    28/47, 352 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT

  • Top fantasy scorer

    Parker Washington

    JAX · WR

    26.5PPR pts

    6 REC, 145 YDS, 1 TD

  • Broncos leader

    RJ Harvey

    DEN · RB

    22.1PPR pts

    7 ATT, 50 YDS, 1 TD, 4 REC, 71 REC YDS

  • Defensive playmaker

    Jarrian Jones

    JAX

    1 INT, 3 TKL

Jaguars 34, Broncos 20: Jacksonville leads from start to finish

Jacksonville led 17–10 at halftime and outscored Denver 17–10 after the break to win 34–20. Denver outgained the Jaguars 445–346.

The Broncos went 5-for-14 on third down and committed two turnovers, while the Jaguars kept the ball for 33:13 and finished without a giveaway.

Key advantages

  • +2 turnover margin JAX 0 turnovers
  • +17% third-down rate JAX 53% · DEN 36%
  • +6:26 time of possession JAX 33:13 · DEN 26:47

Game Highlights

Official NFL highlights · Opens from YouTube

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Why the Jaguars Won

Jacksonville won the turnover, third-down, and time of possession battles.

Team stats comparison, Jaguars vs Broncos
JaguarsStatBroncos
0Turnovers2
53%Third-down conversion36%
33:13Time of possession26:47
Other team stats
346Total yards445
5.1Yards per play6.8
68Plays65

Scoring Summary

The Jaguars scored four touchdowns and two field goals; the Broncos scored two touchdowns and two field goals.

Scoring plays, Jaguars vs Broncos
TimeTeamPlayJAXDEN
1st quarter
0:07JAXTrevor Lawrence → Parker Washington, 12-yard TD Takes leadCam Little XP70
2nd quarter
12:46DENBo Nix → Courtland Sutton, 15-yard TD Ties gameWil Lutz XP77
9:10DENWil Lutz 54-yard FG Takes lead710
4:33JAXTrevor Lawrence → Brenton Strange, 3-yard TD Takes leadCam Little XP1410
0:00JAXCam Little 47-yard FG Extends lead1710
3rd quarter
13:01DENRJ Harvey 38-yard TD run Ties gameWil Lutz XP1717
7:44JAXTrevor Lawrence 1-yard TD run Takes leadCam Little XP2417
3:56JAXTrevor Lawrence → Travis Etienne Jr., 10-yard TD Extends leadCam Little XP3117
4th quarter
13:36JAXCam Little 26-yard FG Extends lead3417
10:44DENWil Lutz 21-yard FG3420

Fantasy Points: Jaguars vs Broncos, Week 16 2025

Fantasy leaders

  1. Trevor LawrenceJAXQB31.2 PTSQB2
  2. Parker WashingtonJAXWR26.5 PTSWR3
  3. RJ HarveyDENRB22.1 PTSRB11
  4. Courtland SuttonDENWR20.6 PTSWR10

Player Stats

Quarterbacks

Quarterback statistics
PlayerFPTSFINCMP/ATTPass YDSTDINTRush ATTRush YDSRush TDRateStart/Sit
Bo NixDENQB16.2QB1728/4735211411081.2Start/Sit →
Trevor LawrenceJAXQB31.2QB223/36279306201115.4Start/Sit →

WRs, RBs, & TEs

Receiver, running back and tight end statistics
PlayerFPTSFINPOSRush ATTRush YDSRush TDTGTRECRec YDSRec TDStart/Sit
Parker WashingtonJAXWR26.5WR3WR———1061451Start/Sit →
RJ HarveyDENRB22.1RB11RB750154710Start/Sit →
Courtland SuttonDENWR20.6WR10WR———126861Start/Sit →
Travis EtienneJAXRB16.6RB18RB1650054161
Brenton StrangeJAXTE14.9TE10TE———75391Start/Sit →
Troy FranklinDENWR10.6WR32WR———54660Start/Sit →
Pat BryantDENWR9.2WR42WR———85420Start/Sit →
Jakobi MeyersJAXWR8.6WR46WR11084450Start/Sit →
Marvin MimsDENWR5.9WR66WR13033260
Evan EngramDENTE5.6TE26TE———42360Start/Sit →
Brian ThomasJAXWR3.8WR84WR———32180
Jaleel McLaughlinDENRB3.7RB55RB5370————Start/Sit →
Adam TrautmanDENTE3.4TE42TE———32140Start/Sit →
Tim PatrickJAXWR2.1WR98WR———11110
Lil'Jordan HumphreyDENWR1.9WR102WR———2190Start/Sit →
Quintin MorrisJAXTE1.5TE57TE———1150Start/Sit →
Tyler BadieDENRB1.2RB69RB———3120Start/Sit →
LeQuint AllenJAXRB1.0RB71RB4100————
Nate AdkinsDENTE0.0—TE———1000Start/Sit →

Fantasy Usage

Jacksonville Jaguars

Snap Share

  1. Jakobi MeyersWR60 snaps86%
  2. Brenton StrangeTE52 snaps74%
  3. Brian ThomasWR51 snaps73%
  4. Travis EtienneRB49 snaps70%
  5. Parker WashingtonWR39 snaps56%

Target Share35 targets

  1. Parker Washington29%, 10 targets
  2. Jakobi Meyers23%, 8 targets
  3. Brenton Strange20%, 7 targets
  4. Travis Etienne14%, 5 targets
  5. Brian Thomas9%, 3 targets
  6. Other6%, 2 targets

Carry Share27 carries

  1. Travis Etienne59%, 16 carries
  2. Trevor Lawrence22%, 6 carries
  3. LeQuint Allen15%, 4 carries
  4. Jakobi Meyers4%, 1 carries

Denver Broncos

Snap Share

  1. Courtland SuttonWR62 snaps94%
  2. Troy FranklinWR42 snaps64%
  3. Pat BryantWR42 snaps64%
  4. RJ HarveyRB39 snaps59%
  5. Adam TrautmanTE38 snaps58%

Target Share46 targets

  1. Courtland Sutton26%, 12 targets
  2. Pat Bryant17%, 8 targets
  3. Troy Franklin11%, 5 targets
  4. RJ Harvey11%, 5 targets
  5. Evan Engram9%, 4 targets
  6. Other26%, 12 targets

Carry Share17 carries

  1. RJ Harvey41%, 7 carries
  2. Jaleel McLaughlin29%, 5 carries
  3. Bo Nix24%, 4 carries
  4. Marvin Mims6%, 1 carries
View full usage tableHide full usage table
Offensive snaps and share for the skill positions
PlayerSNAPSSNAP %TGTTGT %CAR
Courtland SuttonDENWR6294%1226%0
Jakobi MeyersJAXWR6086%823%1
Brenton StrangeJAXTE5274%720%0
Brian ThomasJAXWR5173%39%0
Travis EtienneJAXRB4970%514%16
Troy FranklinDENWR4264%511%0
Pat BryantDENWR4264%817%0
RJ HarveyDENRB3959%511%7
Adam TrautmanDENTE3858%37%0
Parker WashingtonJAXWR3956%1029%0
Evan EngramDENTE2944%49%0
Johnny MundtJAXTE2536%00%0
Marvin MimsDENWR2132%37%1
LeQuint AllenJAXRB2130%00%4
Quintin MorrisJAXTE1927%13%0
Tim PatrickJAXWR1826%13%0
Tyler BadieDENRB1523%37%0
Lil'Jordan HumphreyDENWR1320%24%0
Jaleel McLaughlinDENRB1015%00%5
Nate AdkinsDENTE711%12%0
Dyami BrownJAXWR69%00%0

Fantasy Points vs Expected

Expected points (xFP) are what a player's pass attempts, carries and targets are worth at the league's average rates; the difference is what the player made of them.

  • Biggest overperformer+11.3Trevor Lawrence31.2 PTS vs 19.9 xFP
  • Biggest underperformer−7.3Bo Nix16.2 PTS vs 23.5 xFP
  • Highest expected volume23.5 xFPBo Nix16.2 PTS scored
Usage and expected fantasy points
PlayerPTSxFPvs xFPSnap%UsageRte%Pass attCarCar%TgtTgt%
Bo NixDEN · QB16.223.5−7.3100%47 att—47424%00%
Courtland SuttonDEN · WR20.620.5+0.194%26% tgt—000%1226%
Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB31.219.9+11.3100%36 att—36622%00%
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX · RB16.618.9−2.370%59% car—01659%514%
Parker WashingtonJAX · WR26.517.0+9.556%29% tgt—000%1029%
Jakobi MeyersJAX · WR8.614.3−5.786%23% tgt—014%823%
Pat BryantDEN · WR9.213.6−4.464%17% tgt—000%817%
RJ HarveyDEN · RB22.113.0+9.159%41% car—0741%511%
Brenton StrangeJAX · TE14.911.9+3.074%20% tgt—000%720%
Troy FranklinDEN · WR10.68.5+2.164%11% tgt—000%511%
Evan EngramDEN · TE5.66.8−1.244%9% tgt—000%49%
Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · WR5.95.8+0.132%7% tgt—016%37%
Adam TrautmanDEN · TE3.45.1−1.758%7% tgt—000%37%
Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · WR3.85.1−1.373%9% tgt—000%39%
Tyler BadieDEN · RB1.25.1−3.923%7% tgt—000%37%
Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · WR1.93.4−1.520%4% tgt—000%24%
Jaleel McLaughlinDEN · RB3.73.2+0.515%29% car—0529%00%
LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX · RB1.02.6−1.630%15% car—0415%00%
Nate AdkinsDEN · TE0.01.7−1.711%2% tgt—000%12%
Quintin MorrisJAX · TE1.51.7−0.227%3% tgt—000%13%
Tim PatrickJAX · WR2.11.7+0.426%3% tgt—000%13%

Team totals: Jaguars 35 targets and 27 carries; Broncos 46 targets and 17 carries. Shares are from the box score. Snap counts are from the weekly player logs (Sleeper), and include plays wiped out by penalties. Route counts, air yards and red-zone touches appear when the tracking feed is connected. League-average rates from the 2025 season: 1.70 PPR points per target (67% catch rate), 0.65 per carry and 0.44 per pass attempt. They don't adjust for field position or target depth.

Fantasy Verdicts

Trevor Lawrence Ran hot

JAX · QB · 31.2 pts on 19.9 expected

23 of 36 passing for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns; 6 carries for 20 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 19.9 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Start/Sit: Trevor Lawrence →

Bo Nix Unlucky

DEN · QB · 16.2 pts on 23.5 expected

28 of 47 passing for 352 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception; 4 carries for 11 yards.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 23.5 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Start/Sit: Bo Nix →

Travis Etienne Jr.

JAX · RB · 16.6 pts on 18.9 expected

5 targets (14% of the team's), 4 catches for 16 yards and 1 touchdown; 16 carries (59% of the team's) for 50 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 18.9 expected.

Parker Washington Ran hot

JAX · WR · 26.5 pts on 17.0 expected

10 targets (29% of the team's), 6 catches for 145 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 17.0 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Start/Sit: Parker Washington →

Courtland Sutton

DEN · WR · 20.6 pts on 20.5 expected

12 targets (26% of the team's), 6 catches for 86 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 20.5 expected.

Start/Sit: Courtland Sutton →

Pat Bryant

DEN · WR · 9.2 pts on 13.6 expected

8 targets (17% of the team's), 5 catches for 42 yards.

Verdict: The points matched the role, 13.6 expected.

Start/Sit: Pat Bryant →

Jakobi Meyers Unlucky

JAX · WR · 8.6 pts on 14.3 expected

8 targets (23% of the team's), 4 catches for 45 yards; 1 carry (4% of the team's) for 1 yard.

Verdict: The role was there, worth 14.3 points at league-average rates; the production wasn't.

Start/Sit: Jakobi Meyers →

RJ Harvey Ran hot

DEN · RB · 22.1 pts on 13.0 expected

5 targets (11% of the team's), 4 catches for 71 yards; 7 carries (41% of the team's) for 50 yards and 1 touchdown.

Verdict: The opportunities were worth 13.0 points; the touchdowns supplied the rest, and they are the part least likely to repeat.

Start/Sit: RJ Harvey →

Stock Up, Stock Down

Denver Broncos

  • Stock up: Pat Bryant played 64% of the snaps, up from a 45% season average.
  • Stock up: RJ Harvey played 59% of the snaps, up from a 38% season average.
  • Stock down: Lil'Jordan Humphrey played 20% of the snaps, down from a 54% season average.

Fantasy Matchups

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, 2025 through Week 18.

Fantasy points allowed per game by position, Jaguars defense and Broncos defense
Points allowed toJaguars DBroncos D
QBs16.914.8
RBs17.717.0
WRs30.426.3
TEs14.813.7

Regular season, summed from each game's box score and scored with this page's rules.

How the Game Swung

Denver opened at 60% win probability and fell below 2% in the fourth quarter.

Broncos win probability

Broncos win probability by game minuteBroncos started at 60%, stood at 29% at halftime and finished at 0%, across 10 scoring plays.Q1Q2Q3Q4100%50%0%

Key Swings

  1. −23Lawrence → Washington, 12-yd TD59% → 35%Q1 0:07
  2. +24Nix → Sutton, 15-yd TD35% → 59%Q2 12:46
  3. −26Lawrence → Strange, 3-yd TD69% → 42%Q2 4:33
  4. +29Harvey 38-yd TD run28% → 57%Q3 13:01
  5. −32Lawrence 1-yd TD run56% → 25%Q3 7:44

Swing in Broncos win probability, in points

Play Calling and Possessions

Play calling, Jaguars vs Broncos
Jacksonville JaguarsMeasureDenver Broncos
68Plays65
60%Pass rate74%
6.5Yds / dropback7.2
3.0Yds / carry5.9
8/15Third downs5/14

Efficiency edge Jacksonville ran 3 more plays than Denver.

  • Top targets
  • JAX Washington 29% · Meyers 23% · Strange 20%
  • DEN Sutton 26% · Bryant 17% · Harvey 11%

Possession Results

How each possession ended, Jaguars vs Broncos
ResultJAXDEN
Touchdowns42
Field goals22
Punts63
Turnovers02
Turnovers on downs01
Missed field goals01

JAX turnover edge: +2

  • The Jaguars opened the scoring on their third possession, a 10-play, 66-yard drive that ended in a touchdown.
All 24 possessions, drive by drive
Drive chart
TeamStartPlaysYardsTimeResult
JAXQ1 15:00351:35Punt
DENQ1 13:25371:35Punt
JAXQ1 11:50302:06Punt
DENQ1 9:4411614:33Missed FG
JAXQ1 5:1110665:04Touchdown
DENQ1 0:075652:21Touchdown
JAXQ2 12:463-161:30Punt
DENQ2 11:165322:06Field goal
JAXQ2 9:108594:37Touchdown
DENQ2 4:336302:45Punt
JAXQ2 1:489581:48Field goal
DENQ3 15:004731:59Touchdown
JAXQ3 13:019755:17Touchdown
DENQ3 7:444121:41Punt
JAXQ3 6:034802:07Touchdown
DENQ3 3:565181:55Fumble
JAXQ3 2:017273:25Field goal
DENQ4 13:367652:52Field goal
JAXQ4 10:44301:16Punt
DENQ4 9:285401:20Interception
JAXQ4 8:086163:54Punt
DENQ4 4:148352:02Downs
JAXQ4 2:125170:34Punt
DENQ4 1:385171:38End of game
About these numbers

Possessions that ended with the clock running out at the half or the end of the game aren't counted.

Personnel groupings, average depth of target and pass rate over expected appear when the tracking feed is connected.

Jaguars vs Broncos Head-to-Head

The Jaguars and Broncos first met in 1995 and have played 17 times since.

All-time series
9–8Broncos lead, 17 meetings since 1995
Postseason
1–1Jaguars won in 1996; Broncos won in 1997
Largest Jaguars win
34–202025
Largest Broncos win
42–171997

Since 2021

3–1 Broncos lead

4 meetings since the 2021 season, regular season and playoffs.

Oldest to newest. B = Broncos win, J = Jaguars win, outlined = this game.

Recent Meetings

Season to Date (Through Week 18)

The 2025 regular season, from each game's box score.

Season to date, Jaguars vs Broncos
JaguarsStatBroncos
13-4Record14-3
27.9Points per game23.6
337.4Yards per game342.6
5.2Yards per play5.3
19.8Points allowed per game18.3
303.6Yards allowed per game278.2

Jaguars vs Broncos Odds and Results

How this game finished against the betting lines.

Spread
DEN −3.5Broncos failed to cover by 17.5
Total
46.5Over: 54 points scored (by 7.5)

Expected vs Actual Scoring

Implied team totals against the actual score
TeamImpliedActualDifference
Broncos25.020−5.0
Jaguars21.534+12.5

The Jaguars beat their implied total and the Broncos fell short of theirs; the Fantasy tab has the player lines behind it.

Betting Trends

Last 3 meetings: Broncos 2–1 ATS, unders 2–1.

Each team's 2025 season through this game. Over/under is overs first.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Against the spread
4–0
Over/under
3–1
ATS as favorite
2–0
ATS as underdog
2–0
ATS on the road
2–0

Denver Broncos

Against the spread
1–3
Over/under
3–0
ATS as favorite
0–3
ATS as underdog
1–0
ATS at home
1–1

Lines: ESPN's consensus, captured at kickoff. Individual sportsbooks varied.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Betting availability depends on your state.

Jaguars and Broncos in Fantasy

The two teams don't meet again this season. If you roster a Jaguar or a Bronco, these answer the week-to-week question.

Keep Exploring

2025 Game Logs for Players in This Game

Jaguars vs Broncos Game FAQ

Who won the 2025 Jaguars vs Broncos Week 16 game?

The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Denver Broncos 34–20 in Week 16 of the 2025 season. The game was played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO, on December 21, 2025. See the Jaguars' 2025 schedule.

What was the final score of Jaguars vs Broncos?

The final score was Jaguars 34, Broncos 20. The Jaguars led 17–10 at halftime, and the second half went Jaguars 17, Broncos 10.

What happened in the Jaguars vs Broncos game?

Jacksonville led 17–10 at halftime and outscored Denver 17–10 after the break to win 34–20. Denver outgained the Jaguars 445–346. Trevor Lawrence led all players with 23 of 36 passing for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 6 carries for 20 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Broncos committed 2 turnovers, the Jaguars none.

Who scored the most fantasy points in Jaguars vs Broncos?

Trevor Lawrence led the game with 31.2 PPR fantasy points, the QB2 of Week 16, on 23 of 36 passing for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 6 carries for 20 rushing yards and a touchdown. Parker Washington was next with 26.5 (WR3). See Trevor Lawrence's 2025 game log.

Who led Jaguars vs Broncos in passing, rushing and receiving?

Bo Nix (DEN) led all passers with 28 of 47 for 352 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Travis Etienne (JAX) led in rushing with 16 carries for 50 yards. Parker Washington (JAX) led in receiving with 6 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown.

How many fantasy points did Trevor Lawrence score against the Broncos?

Trevor Lawrence scored 31.2 fantasy points against the Broncos in Week 16 of the 2025 season, the same in PPR, half-PPR and standard scoring because he had no catches, on 23 of 36 passing for 279 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 6 carries for 20 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Who outperformed and underperformed expected fantasy points in Jaguars vs Broncos?

Trevor Lawrence outperformed his expected fantasy points the most, scoring 31.2 PPR points on 19.9 xFP (+11.3). Bo Nix fell furthest short, with 16.2 points on 23.5 xFP (−7.3). A gap either way reflects efficiency and touchdowns in one game; it is not a forecast. For matchups ahead, see fantasy points allowed by position.

How did the Jaguars beat the Broncos?

The Jaguars beat the Broncos 34–20 because they won the turnover battle 2–0.

Which team won the turnover battle in Jaguars vs Broncos?

The Jaguars won the turnover battle 2–0: the Broncos gave the ball away 2 times and the Jaguars not at all. The Jaguars won the game.

What is the all-time Jaguars vs Broncos record?

The Broncos lead the all-time series 9–8 across 17 meetings since 1995, including a 1–1 record in the postseason.

When did the Jaguars and Broncos last play before this game?

Before Week 16 of 2025, they last met in the 2022 season on October 30, 2022, when the Broncos beat the Jaguars 21–17.

Have the Jaguars and Broncos met in the playoffs?

Yes, 2 times, most recently in the 1997 playoffs. The Jaguars are 1–1 against the Broncos in the postseason.

What was the closing spread for Jaguars vs Broncos?

The consensus closing spread at kickoff was Broncos −3.5, making the Denver Broncos 3.5-point favorites, with a closing total of 46.5. That implied about 25.0 points for the Broncos and 21.5 for the Jaguars.

Did Jaguars vs Broncos go over or under the total?

The game went over. The consensus closing total was 46.5, and the teams combined for 54 points, 7.5 over the number.

Who covered the spread in Jaguars vs Broncos?

The Jaguars covered as 3.5-point underdogs against the closing line of Broncos −3.5. The final margin was 14 points.